Fall 2021 Regional Economic Outlook: Asia and Pacific--Navigating Waves of New Variants: Pandemic Resurgence Slows the Recovery

Fall 2021 Regional Economic Outlook: Asia and Pacific--Navigating Waves of New Variants: Pandemic Resurgence Slows the Recovery

Europe Regional Economic Outlook, The European Recovery: Policy Recalibration and Sectoral Reallocation, October 2021

The world remains in the grip of the COVID-19 pandemic and a seemingly accelerating pace of climate change, both of which underscore the need for increased global cooperation and dialogue. Solutions to these global problems must involve all countries and all regions, especially sub-Saharan Africa, with the world’s least vaccinated population, most promising renewable energy potential, and critical ecosystems. Sub-Saharan Africa’s economy is set to expand by 3.7 percent in 2021 and 3.8 percent in 2022. This follows the sharp contraction in 2020 and is much welcome, but still represents the slowest recovery relative to other regions. In particular, the economic outlook points to divergences at three levels: between sub-Saharan Africa and other regions, within sub-Saharan Africa, and within countries. These divergences reflect the region’s slower vaccines rollout, more limited fiscal space, and regional disparities in resilience. The outlook remains extremely uncertain, and risks are tilted to the downside. In particular, the recovery depends on the path of the global pandemic and the regional vaccination effort, food price inflation, and is also vulnerable to disruptions in global activity and financial markets. Looking ahead, sub-Saharan Africa’s potential remains undiminished. The region is at a critical juncture to implement bold transformative reforms to capitalize on this potential.

新冠疫情持续不退,气候变化似在加速,这两个问题依然困扰着我们的世界,也突显了全球加强合作与对话的必要性。为解决这些全球性问题,所有国家和地区都必须参与进来,而撒哈拉以南非洲尤其如此。从全世界来看,该地区目前的疫苗接种率最低,但可再生能源的前景与潜力最大,且其拥有关键的生态系统。撒哈拉以南非洲的经济预计将在2021年增长3.7%,在2022年增长3.8%。相比2020年的大幅收缩,这将是显著的改善,但与其他地区相比,撒哈拉以南非洲的复苏步伐仍是最慢的。特别是,经济前景在三个层面上出现分化:撒哈拉以南非洲与其他地区之间出现分化,撒哈拉以南非洲内部出现分化,以及各国内部出现分化。这些分化趋势反映了以下几个因素,即该地区疫苗推广步伐更慢,财政空间更为有限,以及该地区各国在经济韧性上的差异。前景依然极不确定,风险偏向下行。特别是,该地区的复苏进程取决于全球疫情走势、地区疫苗接种工作进展、食品价格通胀等因素,同时也极易受到全球经济活动和金融市场扰动的影响。展望未来,撒哈拉以南非洲的发展潜力仍未被削弱。该地区正处在一个重要关头,应大刀阔斧地推动重大改革,充分利用其发展潜力。

After the strong rebound of 6.5 percent posted in 2021, growth in Asia and Pacific is expected to moderate to 4.0 percent in 2022 amid an uncertain global environment and rise to 4.3 percent in 2023. Inflation has risen above most central bank targets, but is expected to peak in late 2022. As the effects of the pandemic wane, the region faces new headwinds from global financial tightening and an expected slowdown of external demand. While Asia remains a relative bright spot in an increasingly lethargic global economy, it is expected to expand at a rate that is well below the average rate of 51⁄2 percent seen over the preceding two decades. Policy support is gradually being withdrawn as inflation rises and idle capacity is utilized, but monetary policy should be ready to tighten faster if the rise in core inflation turns out to be more persistent. The region’s rising public debt lev¬els call for continued fiscal consolidation, so interven¬tions to mitigate global food and energy shocks should be well targeted, temporary, and budget neutral. Structural reforms are needed to boost growth and mitigate the scarring that is expected from the pan¬demic, especially making up for lost schooling through investments in education and training, promoting diversification, addressing the debt overhang from the pandemic, and harnessing digitalization. Strong multilateralism—including through international organizations, the Group of Twenty and regional processes—will be needed to mitigate geo-economic fragmentation and deliver much needed progress on climate change commitments.

Regional Economic Outlook, April 2021, Sub-Saharan Africa