Nuclear proliferation in the Middle East remains an issue of concern. Saudi Arabia’s actions will largely rest on Iran’s decisions, and discussions and preparations within Saudi Arabia would suggest that it is ready to react to potential shifts in the region’s nuclear powers. Saudi Arabia and Nuclear Weapons uses an "inside out" approach that emphasises the Saudis’ own national interests in relation to the nuclear threat, and their understanding of the role of nuclear weapons in defense, foreign policy and the concept of deterrence. It is the first study with comprehensive use of the local Arabic language military and civilian media to provide this understanding of official thinking and policy. The Saudi case study is contextualised against the prevailing proliferation models, to conclude that the Saudi case shares both commonalities and elements of uniqueness with other proliferation cases, implying the need for a ‘multi-causal’ approach. Its comparative analysis also suggests potential implications applicable more broadly to the issue of nuclear proliferation. A comprehensive study of Saudi Arabia’s attitude to nuclear weapons, this book offers an exploration of nuclear proliferation that would interest students, scholars and policymakers working in Middle East studies, as well as Military and nuclear proliferation studies.

Saudi Arabia may become one of the next states to acquire nuclear weapons. The Saudis have the challenge of securing a large border area with a relatively small populace against several regional adversaries, The 1979 Iranian Revolution and subsequent overthrow of the Shah, a U.S. ally, sent shock waves across the Gulf states and prompted the Saudis to increase defense spending and purchase the longest-range ballistic missile in the Gulf region: the Chinese CSS-2. These missiles have since reached the end of their life cycle and the Saudi regime has since considered their replacement. This thesis examines the potential for the Saudis to replace their aging missile force with a nuclear- tipped inventory. The United States has provided for the external security of the oil Kingdom through informal security agreements, but a deterioration in U. S.-Saudi relations may compel the Saudis to acquire nuclear weapons in order to deter the ballistic missile and WMD capabilities of its regional adversaries. Saudi Arabia has been a key pillar of the U.S. strategy in the Persian Gulf however, a nuclear Saudi Arabia would undermine the efforts of the NPT and could potentially destabilize the Persian Gulf by initiating a new arms race in the region.

The Kingdom of Saudi Arabia has an uneasy relationship with Iran. The Iran nuclear deal, or Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) has limited Iran's sensitive nuclear program and subjected it to greater international monitoring. Many hoped that the JCPOA would also ease regional security tensions between Saudi Arabia and Iran, yet they have actually increased despite the deal. The JCPOA has also not eliminated the Kingdom's desire for nuclear weapons capabilities and even nuclear weapons, but rather reduced the pressure on Saudi Arabia to match Iran's nuclear weapons capabilities in the short term. In that sense, the deal has delayed concerns about nuclear proliferation in Saudi Arabia. Based on other proliferation cases, unresolved, chronic security concerns can foster nuclear weapons development. For many cases, only the resolution of such concerns led to the avoidance of nuclear weapons. Thus, in the long term, diplomatic and other initiatives should be aimed at regional threat reduction efforts to prevent Saudi Arabia and other Middle Eastern nations from seeking nuclear weapons. Perhaps more important, remedying the relatively short-term nature of the Iran deal's nuclear constraints is critical in preventing Saudi Arabia from building a nuclear weapons capability over the next five to 15 years.

"Bahgat has performed a singular service by offering balanced historical and current analyses of the perception and misperception, cues and miscues, that mark understanding the area's nuclear ambitions."--Dorothea El Mallakh, Director, International Research Center for Energy & Economic Development (ICEED) "A well-written survey of the nuclear question in the Middle East from both historical and contemporary policy perspectives. It will be highly useful to students and practitioners dealing with security issues in the region."--T. V. Paul, author of Power versus Prudence: Why Nations Forgo Nuclear Weapons "A comprehensive and integrated discussion of the nuclear weapons proliferation risks in the Middle East, in an up-to-the minute analysis drawing on decades of history."--George H. Quester, author of Nuclear Monopoly Why do some countries seek to acquire nuclear weapons? How can they be convinced to give up these aspirations? These are the underlying questions in Gawdat Bahgat's intriguing new study of nuclear proliferation in Egypt, Iran, Iraq, Israel, Libya, and Saudi Arabia. Bahgat looks at the economic and political forces that shape this threat to world peace and at the prospects--"largely unrealistic"--of establishing a nuclear weapons free zone in the region in the foreseeable future.