An argument that a rules-based reform of the international monetary system, achieved by applying basic economic theory, would improve economic performance. In this book, the economist John Taylor argues that the apparent correlation of monetary policy decisions among different countries—largely the result of countries' concerns about the exchange rate—causes monetary policy to deviate from effective policies that stabilize inflation and the economy. He argues that a rules-based reform of the international monetary system, achieved by applying basic economic theory, would improve economic performance. Taylor shows that monetary polices in recent years have been deployed either defensively, as central banks counteract forces from abroad that affect the exchange rate, or offensively, as central banks attempt to move the exchange rate to gain a competitive advantage. Focusing on the years from 2005 to 2017, he develops an empirical framework to examine two monetary policy instruments: the policy interest rate (the more conventional of the two) and the size of the balance sheet. He finds that an international contagion in central bank decisions about the policy interest rate has accentuated the deviation from standard interest rate rules that have worked in the past. He finds a similar contagion in decisions about the size of the balance sheet. By considering a counterfactual policy in the estimated model, Taylor is able to estimate by how much the policy of recent years has increased exchange rate volatility. After several rounds of monetary actions and reactions aimed at exchange rates, Taylor finds, the international monetary system is left with roughly the same interest rate configuration, but much larger balance sheets to unwind.

Since the end of the Great Recession in 2009 the central banks of the advanced countries have taken unprecedented actions to reflate and stimulate their economies. There have been significant differences in the timing and pace of these actions. These independent monetary policy actions have had significant spillover effects on the economies and monetary policy strategies of other advanced countries. In addition the monetary policy actions and interventions of the advanced countries have had a significant impact on the emerging market economies leading to the charge of 'currency wars.' The perceived negative consequences of spillovers from the actions of national central banks has led to calls for international monetary policy coordination. The arguments for coordination based on game theory are the same today as back in the 1980s, which led to accords which required that participant countries follow policies to improve global welfare at the expense of domestic fundamentals. This led to disastrous consequences. An alternative approach to the international spillovers of national monetary policy actions is to view them as deviations from rules based monetary policy.

This report comprises three papers written by staff members of the Fund's Research Department on issues arising out of the reports on the international monetary system prepared in 1985 by the Group of Ten (representing the industrial countries participating in the General Arrangements to Borrow) and the intergovernmental Group of Twenty-Four on International Monetary Affairs. These two reports, which appear as appendices to this volume, were transmitted to the Interim Committee of the Fund's Board of Governors and were subsequently discussed by the Fund's Executive Board in early 1986.