THE IRISH TIMES TOP FIVE BESTSELLER 'An unstoppable page-turner. If our leaders were forced to read this book, the world would be a safer place' Richard Dawkins 'A beautifully reasoned book about our own unreasonableness' Robin Ince Why did revolutionary China consider the sparrow an 'animal of capitalism' - and what happened when they tried to wipe them out? With a cast of murderous popes, snake-oil salesmen and superstitious pigeons, find out why flawed logic puts us all at risk, and how critical thinking can save the world. It may seem a big claim, but knowing how to think clearly and critically has literally helped save the world. In September 1983, at the height of the Cold War, the Soviet Union's early warning system showed five US missiles heading towards the country. Stanislaw Petrov knew his duty: he was to inform Moscow that nuclear war had begun, so that they could launch an immediate and devastating response. Instead, he made a call to say the system was faulty. He'd assessed the situation and reasoned that an error was more likely than such a limited attack. We may not have to save the planet from nuclear annihilation, of course, but our ability to think critically has never been more important. In a world where fake news, mistrust of experts, prejudice and ignorance all too often hold sway, we can all too easily be misled over issues such as vaccinations, climate change or conspiracy theories. We live in an era where access to all the knowledge in the world is at our fingertips, yet that also means misinformation and falsehoods can spread further and faster than ever before. In The Irrational Ape, David Robert Grimes shows how we can be lured into making critical mistakes or drawing false conclusions, and how to avoid such errors. Given the power of modern science and the way that movements can unite to protest a cause via social media, we are in dangerous times. But fortunately, we can learn from our mistakes, and by critical thinking and scientific method we can discover how to apply these techniques to everything from deciding what insurance to buy to averting global disaster. This book, packed with fascinating case studies and examples, helps ensure we are ready for the modern world.

Do you know what economists mean when they refer to you as a "rational agent"? Or why a psychologist might label your idea a "creative insight"? After reading this book, you will know how the best and brightest thinkers judge the ways we decide, argue, solve problems, and tell right from wrong.

These sparkling essays by a gifted thinker offer philosophical views on the roots of statistical interference. A pioneer in the early development of computing, Irving J. Good made fundamental contributions to the theory of Bayesian inference and was a key member of the team that broke the German Enigma code during World War II. Good maintains that a grasp of probability is essential to answering both practical and philosophical questions. This compilation of his most accessible works concentrates on philosophical rather than mathematical subjects, ranging from rational decisions, randomness, and the nature of probability to operational research, artificial intelligence, cognitive psychology, and chess. These twenty-three self-contained articles represent the author's work in a variety of fields but are unified by a consistently rational approach. Five closely related sections explore Bayesian rationality; probability; corroboration, hypothesis testing, and simplicity; information and surprise; and causality and explanation. A comprehensive index, abundant references, and a bibliography refer readers to classic and modern literature. Good's thought-provoking observations and memorable examples provide scientists, mathematicians, and historians of science with a coherent view of probability and its applications.

An essential tool for our post-truth world: a witty primer on logic—and the dangers of illogical thinking—by a renowned Notre Dame professor Logic is synonymous with reason, judgment, sense, wisdom, and sanity. Being logical is the ability to create concise and reasoned arguments—arguments that build from given premises, using evidence, to a genuine conclusion. But mastering logical thinking also requires studying and understanding illogical thinking, both to sharpen one’s own skills and to protect against incoherent, or deliberately misleading, reasoning. Elegant, pithy, and precise, Being Logical breaks logic down to its essentials through clear analysis, accessible examples, and focused insights. D. Q. McInerney covers the sources of illogical thinking, from naïve optimism to narrow-mindedness, before dissecting the various tactics—red herrings, diversions, and simplistic reasoning—the illogical use in place of effective reasoning. An indispensable guide to using logic to advantage in everyday life, this is a concise, crisply readable book. Written explicitly for the layperson, McInerny’s Being Logical promises to take its place beside Strunk and White’s The Elements of Style as a classic of lucid, invaluable advice. Praise for Being Logical “Highly readable . . . D. Q. McInerny offers an introduction to symbolic logic in plain English, so you can finally be clear on what is deductive reasoning and what is inductive. And you’ll see how deductive arguments are constructed.”—Detroit Free Press “McInerny’s explanatory outline of sound thinking will be eminently beneficial to expository writers, debaters, and public speakers.”—Booklist “Given the shortage of logical thinking, And the fact that mankind is adrift, if not sinking, It is vital that all of us learn to think straight. And this small book by D.Q. McInerny is great. It follows therefore since we so badly need it, Everybody should not only but it, but read it.” —Charles Osgood

Our daily communication involves argumentation and reasoning, but how well do we prepare students for these tasks? Are they able to persuade others, make solid purchasing decisions, or analyze the messages in the media? In his new book, Good Thinking: Teaching Argument, Persuasion, and Reasoning, Erik Palmer shows teachers of all subject matters how to transform the activities they already use into openings for improving student thinking. He demonstrates how to critically evaluate a point of view, understand rhetorical devises, apply logic, and build an effective argument, written or oral. Blending theory with practice, Palmer shares a wide range of classroom-tested lessons, including:How to understand argument in paintings and images Addressing ad hominem attacks using a traveling debate Creating a class comedy club, where students write syllogisms and analyze character and plot development Teaching logic through a class 'Booger Patrol' Palmer explains complex concepts in simple, practical language that gives teachers a deft understanding of the principles of good arguments, proper use of evidence, persuasive techniques, and rhetorical tricks. He reveals how all students, not just those in advanced classes, can begin developing sophisticated reasoning skills that will improve their oral and written communications, both in and outside of the classroom. '

Good Thinking is our best defense against anti-vaccine paranoia, climate denial, and other dire threats of today In our ever-more-polarized society, there’s at least one thing we still agree on: The world is overrun with misinformation, faulty logic, and the gullible followers who buy into it all. Of course, we’re not among them—are we? Scientist David Robert Grimes is on a mission to expose the logical fallacies and cognitive biases that drive our discourse on a dizzying array of topics–from vaccination to abortion, 9/11 conspiracy theories to dictatorial doublespeak, astrology to alternative medicine, and wrongful convictions to racism. But his purpose in Good Thinking isn’t to shame or place blame. Rather, it’s to interrogate our own assumptions–to develop our eye for the glimmer of truth in a vast sea of dubious sources–in short, to think critically. Grimes’s expert takedown of irrationality is required reading for anyone wondering why bad thinking persists and how we can defeat it. Ultimately, no one changes anyone else’s mind; we can only change our own–and give others the tools to do the same.