Earthquake Prediction--state of the Art
Title | Earthquake Prediction--state of the Art PDF eBook |
Author | Max Wyss |
Publisher | Birkhauser |
Total Pages | 276 |
Release | 1997 |
Genre | Earthquake prediction |
ISBN |
The debate about our capability or inability to predict earthquakes is shown in this book. Proponents of prediction methods make their cases, but critics point out shortcomings and an international panel prepared a list of significant earthquake precursors, that may be useful for prediction attempts.
Nonlinear Dynamics of the Lithosphere and Earthquake Prediction
Title | Nonlinear Dynamics of the Lithosphere and Earthquake Prediction PDF eBook |
Author | Vladimir Keilis-Borok |
Publisher | Springer Science & Business Media |
Total Pages | 358 |
Release | 2002-12-10 |
Genre | Science |
ISBN | 9783540435280 |
The vulnerability of our civilization to earthquakes is rapidly growing, rais ing earthquakes to the ranks of major threats faced by humankind. Earth quake prediction is necessary to reduce that threat by undertaking disaster preparedness measures. This is one of the critically urgent problems whose solution requires fundamental research. At the same time, prediction is a ma jor tool of basic science, a source of heuristic constraints and the final test of theories. This volume summarizes the state-of-the-art in earthquake prediction. Its following aspects are considered: - Existing prediction algorithms and the quality of predictions they pro vide. - Application of such predictions for damage reduction, given their current accuracy, so far limited. - Fundamental understanding of the lithosphere gained in earthquake prediction research. - Emerging possibilities for major improvements of earthquake prediction methods. - Potential implications for predicting other disasters, besides earthquakes. Methodologies. At the heart of the research described here is the inte gration of three methodologies: phenomenological analysis of observations; "universal" models of complex systems such as those considered in statistical physics and nonlinear dynamics; and Earth-specific models of tectonic fault networks. In addition, the theory of optimal control is used to link earthquake prediction with earthquake preparedness.
Nonlinear Dynamics of the Lithosphere and Earthquake Prediction
Title | Nonlinear Dynamics of the Lithosphere and Earthquake Prediction PDF eBook |
Author | Vladimir Keilis-Borok |
Publisher | Springer Science & Business Media |
Total Pages | 348 |
Release | 2013-03-14 |
Genre | Science |
ISBN | 3662052989 |
The vulnerability of our civilization to earthquakes is rapidly growing, rais ing earthquakes to the ranks of major threats faced by humankind. Earth quake prediction is necessary to reduce that threat by undertaking disaster preparedness measures. This is one of the critically urgent problems whose solution requires fundamental research. At the same time, prediction is a ma jor tool of basic science, a source of heuristic constraints and the final test of theories. This volume summarizes the state-of-the-art in earthquake prediction. Its following aspects are considered: - Existing prediction algorithms and the quality of predictions they pro vide. - Application of such predictions for damage reduction, given their current accuracy, so far limited. - Fundamental understanding of the lithosphere gained in earthquake prediction research. - Emerging possibilities for major improvements of earthquake prediction methods. - Potential implications for predicting other disasters, besides earthquakes. Methodologies. At the heart of the research described here is the inte gration of three methodologies: phenomenological analysis of observations; "universal" models of complex systems such as those considered in statistical physics and nonlinear dynamics; and Earth-specific models of tectonic fault networks. In addition, the theory of optimal control is used to link earthquake prediction with earthquake preparedness.
Chapter Current State of Art in Earthquake Prediction, Typical Precursors and Experience in Earthquake Forecasting at Sakhalin Island and Surrounding Areas
Title | Chapter Current State of Art in Earthquake Prediction, Typical Precursors and Experience in Earthquake Forecasting at Sakhalin Island and Surrounding Areas PDF eBook |
Author | I.N. Tikhonov |
Publisher | |
Total Pages | |
Release | 2012 |
Genre | |
ISBN |
State-of-the-art for Assessing Earthquake Hazards in the United States
Title | State-of-the-art for Assessing Earthquake Hazards in the United States PDF eBook |
Author | |
Publisher | |
Total Pages | 102 |
Release | 1973 |
Genre | Earthquakes |
ISBN |
State-of-the-art for Assessing Earthquake Hazards in the United States
Title | State-of-the-art for Assessing Earthquake Hazards in the United States PDF eBook |
Author | |
Publisher | |
Total Pages | 102 |
Release | 1973 |
Genre | Earthquakes |
ISBN |
State-of-the-art for Assessing Earthquake Hazards in the United States
Title | State-of-the-art for Assessing Earthquake Hazards in the United States PDF eBook |
Author | Otto W. Nuttli |
Publisher | |
Total Pages | 116 |
Release | 1978 |
Genre | Earthquakes |
ISBN |
This report is concerned with the problem of estimating credible values of the peak velocity and acceleration of the ground motion for central United States earthquakes. The report contains a catalog of all known earthquakes large enough to be felt or of body-wave magnitude greater than or equal to 3. The data of the catalog are plotted on a map, which together with structural geological information is used to identify eight seismic source zones in the central United States. The boundaries of the source zones are inexact, so that special study will be required for establishing credible ground-motion values for sites near the boundaries. A maximum-magnitude earthquake is determined for each zone, as well as a magnitude-recurrence equation. Using the Murphy-O'Brien formulation, as well as theoretical results of Herrmann and a limited amount of strong-motion data for the central United States, equations are derived for that region which relate maximum horizontal acceleration and velocity to body-wave magnitude and epicentral distance. (Author).