Zambia, a once prosperous African country, now has 73 per cent of its people below the poverty line and by the early 1990s, the country was included on the list of the least developed countries. Despite significant aid volumes and structural reforms, the country is getting deeper and deeper into poverty. What is the missing link between aid and positive change? Is the problem mainly that the volume of aid is not sufficient and, as is often heard, more of it would make a difference? Has the sluggish social and economic progress in Zambia been appropriately diagnosed and correct remedies and strategies prescribed? This book attempts to address these and related questions.

June 1998 Aid spurs growth and poverty reduction only in a good policy environment so it should be targeted to countries that have improved their economic policy. That aid tends to be allocated relatively indiscriminately is one factor that undermines its potential impact. Spurring growth in the developing world is one stated objective of foreign aid. Another, more commonly cited, objective is reducing poverty. Generally poverty reduction and growth go hand in hand, but could aid mitigate poverty without measurably affecting growth? Burnside and Dollar examine how foreign aid affects infant mortality-an important social indicator that provides indirect evidence that the benefits of development are reaching people everywhere. They conclude that in developing countries with weak economic management-evidenced by poor property rights, high levels of corruption, closed trade regimes, and macroeconomic instability-there is no relationship between aid and the change in infant mortality. In distorted environments, development projects promoted by donors tend to fail. And aid resources are typically fungible, so the aid does not in fact finance these projects. Aid finances the whole public sector at the margin, which is why the quality of management is the key to effective assistance. A government that cannot put effective development policies in place is unlikely to oversee the effective use of foreign aid. On the other hand, there is a relationship between aid and a change in infant mortality when the recipient country has relatively good management. When management is good, additional aid worth 1 percent of GDP has a powerful effect, reducing infant mortality by 0.9 percent. In other words, aid spurs growth and improvements in social indicators only in a good policy environment. These findings strengthen the case for targeting foreign aid to countries that have improved their economic policy. But after controlling for per capita income and population, there has been almost no relationship between countries' economic policies and the amount of aid they get. The relatively indiscriminate allocation of assistance is one factor undermining the potential impact of aid. This paper-a product of Macroeconomics and Growth, Development Research Group-is part of a larger effort in the group to examine aid effectiveness. The study was funded by the Bank's Research Support Budget under the research project Economic Policies and the Effectiveness of Foreign Aid (RPO 681-70). The authors may be contacted at [email protected] or [email protected].

This Joint Staff Advisory Note (JSAN) focuses on the Second Annual Progress Report for Zambia’s Poverty Reduction Strategy Paper (PRSP). The government’s strategy to reduce poverty focuses on promoting economic growth through macroeconomic stabilization and diversification and improving the quality of service delivery, while addressing crosscutting issues of governance, HIV/AIDS, gender, and the environment. The JSAN provides IMF staff advice on priorities for advancing the PRSP implementation. It highlights progress in implementing the PRSP and provides suggestions for strengthening its implementation. The risks associated with implementation are also described.

Debunking the current model of international aid promoted by both Hollywood celebrities and policy makers, Moyo offers a bold new road map for financing development of the world's poorest countries.