Weather and Climate Services in Europe and Central Asia is part of the World Bank Working Paper series. These papers are published to communicate the results of the Bank's ongoing research and to stimulate public discussion. Worldwide, the accuracy and value of weather and climate services are rising, bringing great economic benefits. However, many national hydrometeorological services in Europe and Central Asia are in decline. As a result, these potential gains are often missed. Much more could be done to mitigate weather disasters, support the productivity of smallholding and commercial agriculture, conserve energy, and promote safe aviation and transport by road and rail. Although capacity deficiencies are serious, they could be remedied significantly by relatively modest-but sustained-investments. Chapter 1 describes the worldwide growth in weather forecasting skill, presents principal issues and questions in Europe and Central Asia (ECA), and sets out the study's organization. Chapter 2 assesses the needs of the key sectoral clients of the national hydrometeorological services in the region. Chapter 3 addresses ECA's natural weather and climate issues: vulnerability to transboundary weather events, extreme weather, variable weather, and projected climate change. Chapter 4 presents the forecasting workflow, and then presents key regional and national capacity gaps. Chapter 5 discusses ways to estimate the economic benefit of existing and upgraded forecasting capacity. This study is part of an ongoing Regional Working Paper Series sponsored by the Chief Economist's Office in the Europe and Central Asia Region of the World Bank.

Adapting to Climate Change in Eastern Europe and Central Asia presents an overview of what adaptation to climate change might mean for the countries of the region of Eastern Europe and Central Asia (ECA). The next decade offers a window of opportunity for ECA countries to make their development more resilient to climate change.

The following paper serves as a sectoral background note for the regional report 'managing Uncertainty: Adapting to Climate Change in Europe and Central Asia Countries'. It focuses on what is known about the implications of climate change for extreme weather and the ability of Europe and Central Asia (ECA) to mitigate and manage the impact of extreme events. It also explains how climate change will increase weather-induced disasters in ECA, highlighting the sensitivity of ECA's population to these hazards, and recommending various measures in the area of financial and fiscal policy, disaster risk mitigation, and emergency preparedness and management, to reduce current and future vulnerabilities. The goals of this paper are to: (i) present forecasts on how climate change will affect weather-related hazards and secondary effects, and what impact the extreme hydro-meteorological phenomena will have on the countries of Europe and Central Asia; and (ii) provide an overview of measures to mitigate and manage these risks.

Climate change is among humanity’s greatest challenges, and the Middle East and Central Asia region is on the frontlines of its human, economic, and physical ramifications. Much of the region is located in already difficult climate zones, where global warming exacerbates desertification, water stress, and rising sea levels. This trend entails fundamental economic disruptions, endangers food security, and undermines public health, with ripple effects on poverty and inequality, displacement, and conflict. Considering the risks posed by climate change, the central message of this departmental paper is that adapting to climate change by boosting resilience to climate stresses and disasters is a critical priority for the region’s economies.

The climate is changing; and the Europe and Central Asia (ECA) region is vulnerable to the consequences. Many of the region's countries are facing warmer temperatures, a changing hydrology and more extremes, droughts, floods, heat waves, windstorms, and forest fires. Already the frequency and cost of natural disasters have risen dramatically in the region. And the concentration of greenhouse gases already in the atmosphere guarantees that similar or greater changes are yet to come, even if the world completely stopped emitting carbon dioxide. Now, and at least for the near future, ECA vulnerability is being driven more by its existing sensitivity than by the severity of the climate impacts. In fact, ECA already suffers from a serious adaptation deficit even to its current climate. This derives from a combination of socioeconomic factors and the Soviet legacy of environmental mismanagement. This report presents an overview of what adaptation to climate change might mean for ECA. It starts with a discussion of emerging best practice adaptation planning around the world and a review of the latest climate projections. The report then discusses possible actions to improve resilience organized around impacts on natural resources (water, biodiversity, and the coastal environment), health, the 'unbuilt' environment (agriculture and forestry), and the built environment (infrastructure and housing). The last chapter concludes with a discussion of two areas in great need of strengthening given the changing climate: disaster preparedness and hydrometeorological services.

Climate change and extreme weather events are heightening levels of acute food insecurity and food crises around the world. As the world emerges from the COVID-19 pandemic and deals with other drivers of food security, poverty and inequality, the international community is calling for a climate-resilient and sustainable recovery. Supporting the shift away from disaster response toward preventative and anticipatory action is fundamental to address the growing challenges faced by agriculture and food systems. Climate services highlight the role of science and technology in providing innovative solutions for risk reduction, effective resilience policies and adaptation planning. Underpinned by robust science and agrometeorological data, climate services and digital advisories bring tailored climate information to agricultural producers and value chain actors. But despite increasing evidence of the benefits of climate services, there are still major gaps in their development worldwide. This global assessment points to a significant gap in investment in climate services for the last mile – the small-scale farmers and most marginalized communities. Bridging this gap and scaling climate services is essential if actionable information is to be communicated in an equitable and effective manner to users, making sure no one is left behind. The report presents the latest data on the state of climate services for agricultural users with surveys from 36 countries across all FAO regions. The report’s findings have major implications for institutional frameworks to effectively target investments in resilience, preparedness and recovery. Case studies highlight additional challenges, opportunities and lessons learned from specific interventions across the climate services provision framework. Despite many challenges, climate services have demonstrable benefits to agriculture and food security by navigating agricultural producers around unpredictable and changing weather patterns. The report presents a blueprint for targeted investments to ensure that finance is effectively allocated not only to enhance the production of climate services, but also their provision, engagement and application by agricultural communities.

Meteorological and climate data are indeed essential both in day-to-day energy management and for the definition of production and distribution infrastructures. For instance, the supply of electricity to users can be disturbed by extreme meteorological events such as thunderstorms with unusually strong winds, severe icing, severe cold spells, sea level elevation associated with storm surges, floods ... To be protected against such events, it is not sufficient to act after they have taken place. It is necessary to identify their potential impacts precisely and assess the probability of their occurrence. This book shows that this can only be done through an enhanced dialogue between the energy community and the climate and meteorology community. This implies an in-depth dialogue between actors to define precisely what kind of data is needed and how it should be used. Météo-France has been in long-term cooperation with the energy sector, including the fields of electricity production and distribution. Drawing on this experience, it should be noted in this respect the importance of lo- term partnership between actors as exemplified here by the message of EDF.