This book inquires into the use of prediction at the intersection of politics and academia, and reflects upon the implications of future-oriented policy-making across different fields. The volume focuses on the key intricacies and fallacies of prevision in a time of complexity, uncertainty, and unpredictability. The first part of the book discusses different academic perspectives and contributions to future-oriented policy-making. The second part discusses the role of future knowledge in decision-making across different empirical issues such as climate, health, finance, bio- and nuclear weapons, civil war, and crime. It analyses how prediction is integrated into public policy and governance, and how in return governance structures influence the making of knowledge about the future. Contributors integrate two analytical dimensions in their chapters: the epistemology of prevision and the political and ethical implications of prevision. In this way, the volume contributes to a better understanding of the complex interaction and feedback loops between the processes of creating knowledge about the future and the application of this future knowledge in public policy and governance. This book will be of much interest to students of security studies, political science, sociology, technology studies, and International Relations. The Open Access version of this book, available at https://www.routledge.com/The-Politics-and-Science-of-Prevision-Governing-and-Probing/Wenger-Jasper-Cavelty/p/book/9780367900748, has been made available under a Creative Commons Attribution-Non Commercial-No Derivatives 4.0 license.

This book inquires into the use of prediction at the intersection of politics and academia, and reflects upon the implications of future-oriented policymaking across different fields. The volume focuses on the key intricacies and fallacies of prevision in a time of complexity, uncertainty and unpredictability. The first part of the book discusses different academic perspectives and contributions to future-oriented policymaking. The second part discusses the role of future knowledge in decision-making across different empirical issues such as climate, health, finance, bio- and nuclear weapons, civil war, and crime. It analyses how prediction is integrated into public policy and governance, and how in return governance structures influence the making of knowledge about the future. Contributors integrate two analytical dimensions in their chapters- the epistemology of prevision and the political and ethical implications of prevision. In this way, the volume contributes to a better understanding of the complex interaction and feedback loops between the processes of creating knowledge about the future and the application of this future knowledge in public policy and governance. This book will be of much interest to students of security studies, political science, sociology, technology studies and IR.

Bertrand de Jouvenel (1903-1987) was one of the great political thinkers of the twentieth century, but he left few disciples. The essays contained in this volume have been selected because they serve to clarify, elaborate, and expand upon the themes of his three masterworks: On Power, Sovereignty, and The Pure Theory of Politics. De Jouvenel's thought stands apart from the main branches of twentieth-century political philosophy and is largely independent of schools and ideologies. By drawing on an older, more persuasive philosophical tradition stretching from Plato to Rousseau, de Jouvenel sought to restore political science to its ancient function: the explanation of political things. With directness and originality, his work addresses questions that go to the heart of the political science enterprise, exploring its nature, its mission, and its attitude to theory, facts, and values. In the realm of political practice, de Jouvenel shares common ground with his contemporaries while remaining essentially independent. He shares with the left a deep concern for reducing human misery and ecological depredation and a belief in the need for government-directed economic planning. On the other hand, he shares the right's abiding suspicion of state power and its belief in the superiority of the market as the presumptive method for economic decision making. De Jouvenel's refreshing freedom from ideological blinders makes him worthy of comparison to Orwell, but his ambition stretches beyond the novelistic in that he attempts to develop a theory of the good state resting upon a clear-sighted understanding of the true nature of political behavior. Graced with a brilliant introduction by Dennis Hale and Marc Landy, this volume serves as an ideal introduction to de Jouvenel's thought. It will be of interest to political scientists, historians, and sociologists.

Forecasting is required in many situations. Stocking an inventory may require forecasts of demand months in advance. Telecommunication routing requires traffic forecasts a few minutes ahead. Whatever the circumstances or time horizons involved, forecasting is an important aid in effective and efficient planning. This textbook provides a comprehensive introduction to forecasting methods and presents enough information about each method for readers to use them sensibly.

This dictionary offers the only comprehensive collection of profiles of American political scientists, each of whom contributed significantly to the intellectual development of American political science from its beginnings in the late-19th century to the present. This second edition includes 22 new and 110 revised entries, reflecting new scholarship that emerged during the 1990s. Numerous experts helped the editors develop this consensus group of the 193 political scientists who have made the most important theoretical contributions over the years, with attention to varied approaches and the different subfields. Alphabetically arranged entries focus on the main ideas and major works by each scholar, listing list the most important publications by and about the individual. There are numerous cross-references to show how the work of one scholar has influenced another in the discipline. Appendices list the political scientists by degree-granting institutions and by major fields. A short bibliography points to important general readings about the profession. A general index makes this major reference easily accessible for broad interdisciplinary research.

This book demonstrates the increasing interest of some social scientists in the theories, research and findings of life sciences in building a more interdisciplinary approach to the study of politics. It discusses the development of biopolitics as an academic perspective within political science, reviews the growing literature in the field and presents a coherent view of biopolitics as a framework for structuring inquiry across the current subfields of political science.

"This book argues that, just as the "widening" of political problems across national boundaries due to globalization has led to profound shifts in how we understand, study, and approach governance across space, so too does their "lengthening" across time horizons require a fundamental shift in thinking and policy. Social scientists and policy-makers have yet to really appreciate the role that time can play, hampering our ability to find effective solutions. In this book, Thomas Hale explores the implications of "long problems"- those, like climate change, whose proximate causes and effects unfold over relatively long time periods -for politics and governance. Hale starts by defining long problems and then considers the three features that make these issues so challenging: institutional lag, the fact that future generations cannot advocate for their interests in the present, and the difficulty of acting early enough to make a difference. Tackling long problems requires solutions that address these challenges head on, and Hale presents interventions to address each, not just in the abstract but with copious examples of policies that have worked or have failed. The author also considers, more largely, how social science can best study long problems, outlining a research agenda that aims to shift the object of study from the past to the future. In sum, Hale presents a framework and vision for how society can best govern long problems and address complex and profound challenges like climate change"--