This comprehensive report looks at the threats facing agriculture and rural livelihoods, from food crises and transboundary animal diseases to conflicts and natural disasters. It presents an in-depth analysis of impacts on fisheries, aquaculture and forestry, and addresses post-disaster management strategies.

On top of a decade of exacerbated disaster loss, exceptional global heat, retreating ice and rising sea levels, humanity and our food security face a range of new and unprecedented hazards, such as megafires, extreme weather events, desert locust swarms of magnitudes previously unseen, and the COVID-19 pandemic. Agriculture underpins the livelihoods of over 2.5 billion people – most of them in low-income developing countries – and remains a key driver of development. At no other point in history has agriculture been faced with such an array of familiar and unfamiliar risks, interacting in a hyperconnected world and a precipitously changing landscape. And agriculture continues to absorb a disproportionate share of the damage and loss wrought by disasters. Their growing frequency and intensity, along with the systemic nature of risk, are upending people’s lives, devastating livelihoods, and jeopardizing our entire food system. This report makes a powerful case for investing in resilience and disaster risk reduction – especially data gathering and analysis for evidence informed action – to ensure agriculture’s crucial role in achieving the future we want.

Disasters are resulting in unprecedented levels of destruction across the world. These shocks and disruptions affect the functioning and sustainability of agricultural production and threaten the livelihoods of millions of people reliant on agrifood systems. Reducing the impact of disasters in agriculture requires a better understanding of the extent to which these events produce negative impacts in agriculture and necessitates an investigation into the underlying risks that make agriculture vulnerable to the effects of disasters. The FAO flagship report on ‘The Impact of Disasters on Agriculture and Food Security’ provides a timely and comprehensive overview of how disasters are affecting agriculture and food security around the world. Building on previous work of the FAO on this topic, the report estimates losses caused by disasters on agricultural production over the past three decades and delves into the diverse threats and impacts affecting the crops, livestock, forestry, and fisheries and aquaculture subsectors. It analyzes the complex interplay of underlying risks, such as climate change, pandemics, epidemics and armed conflicts, and how they drive disaster risk in agriculture and agrifood systems at large. The report provides examples of actions and strategies for investing in resilience and proactively addressing risks in agriculture. It demonstrates ways to mainstream disaster risk into agricultural practices and policies and calls for a deeper understanding of the context in which these solutions are implemented.

New evidence this year corroborates the rise in world hunger observed in this report last year, sending a warning that more action is needed if we aspire to end world hunger and malnutrition in all its forms by 2030. Updated estimates show the number of people who suffer from hunger has been growing over the past three years, returning to prevailing levels from almost a decade ago. Although progress continues to be made in reducing child stunting, over 22 percent of children under five years of age are still affected. Other forms of malnutrition are also growing: adult obesity continues to increase in countries irrespective of their income levels, and many countries are coping with multiple forms of malnutrition at the same time – overweight and obesity, as well as anaemia in women, and child stunting and wasting.

Agricultural production is highly sensitive to weather and climate-related disasters such as drought, storm and flood. While it is not possible to prevent the occurrence of natural disasters, the resultant disastrous effects can be reduced mitigated through proper planning and effective preparation. This book, based on a gathering of experts in Beijing, discusses ways to reduce the vulnerability of agriculture to disaster and extreme events, both by accurate and timely warning, and by impact-reducing countermeasures.

Armed conflict combined with prolonged drought has put about 20 million people at risk of starvation and death in Somalia, South Sudan, Yemen, and northern Nigeria. The international development and aid communities are caught between the enormity of the humanitarian crisis, which demands an estimated US$4.4 billion to address, and the lack of resources forthcoming from donors. Food crises, famine-like conditions, and famines recur with regularity in many developing countries (see Box 1 for definitions of terms). Although the current famines can be largely attributed to conflicts, chronic food insecurity also threatens several other African countries. For example, 6.7 million people were affected by Malawi’s largest food crisis in decades in 2016–2017, and the country remains vulnerable to weather extremes that could create food emergencies (World Bank 2017). In Kenya, food security has deteriorated since the end of 2016 and half of its 47 counties face food shortages (Chatterjee and Mengistu 2017). How do countries prepare to prevent shocks—natural and man-made—from generating food crises? What does it take to break the cycle of chronic food insecurity and build resilient food systems? How have some countries managed to prevent drought from leading to famine? In this brief, we document lessons for building resilient food systems to prevent future famines.

Global climate studies show that not only temperatures are increasing and precipitation levels are becoming more varied, all projections indicate these trends will continue. It is therefore imperative that we understand changes in climate over agricultural areas and their impacts on agriculture production and food security. This study presents new analysis on the impact of changing climate on agriculture and food security, by examining the evidence on recent climate variability and extremes over agricultural areas and the impact of these on agriculture and food security. It shows that more countries are exposed to increasing climate variability and extremes and the frequency (the number of years exposed in a five-year period) and intensity (the number of types of climate extremes in a five-year period) of exposure over agricultural areas have increased. The findings of this study are compelling and bring urgency to the fact that climate variability and extremes are proliferating and intensifying and are contributing to a rise in global hunger. The world’s 2.5 billion small-scale farmers, herders, fishers, and forest-dependent people, who derive their food and income from renewable natural resources, are most at risk and affected. Actions to strengthen the resilience of livelihoods and food systems to climate variability and extremes urgently need to be scaled up and accelerated.