The emergence of China throughout Asia: security and economic consequences for the United States: hearing before the Subcommittee on East Asian and Pacific Affairs of the Committee on Foreign Relations, United States Senate, One Hundred Ninth Congress, first session, June 7, 2005.

The emergence of China throughout Asia : security and economic consequences for the United States : hearing before the Subcommittee on East Asian and Pacific Affairs of the Committee on Foreign Relations, United States Senate, One Hundred Ninth Congress, first session, June 7, 2005.

China boasts the oldest continuous civilization in the world and has been a major power for most of its history. Although China suffered a period of decline in the late 19th and early 20th centuries, recent decades have seen a remarkable resurgence of Chinese prosperity and power. Five years ago analysts were confidently predicting that China would be the giant of the new century.1 Today, this is less clear. The first task of the conference was, consequently, to ascertain whether or not it is still appropriate to speak of the rise of China. All agreed that China has made tremendous economic progress since the 1970s when it was one of the world's least developed countries. By the end of the 20th century, it had one of the largest economies in the world (between the seventh and the second largest, depending upon what sources you consult). In terms of population, it clearly ranks among the great powers. In July 2000, its population was estimated at 1,261,8332,482 people. China is also a rising military power, allocating an increasing amount of its budget towards military modernization and placing increasing stress on the use of force. China successfully weathered the economic crisis of 1997-98 and does not appear to be in imminent danger of economic stagnation or decline. The future, however, is less certain. Some conference participants prophesied a continued rise in Chinese economic power, while others anticipated the possibility of a dramatic fall (the most likely date for which would be between 2005 and 2010). In the final analysis, we do not know whether China will rise or fall. We would do well to heed the warnings of Kurt Campbell who stressed the disastrous track record of hegemonic prophecies. Over the course of the last half-century, the Soviet Union (1970s), Japan (1980s), China (late 1990s), and most recently India, were hailed as the up-and-coming economic superpowers. American economic power was widely expected to collapse. All of these predictions proved to be unfounded.

China's rise in the global arena is undeniably altering the global status quo. Its rise is closely linked to and reflected in its rising dependence on imported oil, adroit soft power, economic prowess and corresponding impressive economic growth, its military modernization, and its strategic engagement of the world as an alternative model of political and economic development. As the status quo changes, the United States theoretically becomes less influential politically, economically, and militarily, because China is skillfully harnessing and strategically exercising the elements of national power to acquire scarce oil energy resources in the Near East, Western Hemisphere, and Sub-Saharan Africa. Chinese Energy Futures and Their Implications for the United States, by George Eberling, examines how Chinese oil energy specifically will shape future Sino-American relations under conditions of dependency and non-dependency, and whether competition or cooperation for scarce energy resources will result. Eberling uses both scenario analysis and the PRINCE method to examine three possible Chinese oil energy futures: Competitive Dependency, Competitive Surplus, and Cooperative Surplus. Chinese Energy Futures also discusses and evaluates the strategic implications of these scenarios with respect to the United States.