A century ago, life expectancy was roughly 40 years, hence all income could be consumed, as for most people, there was no need to save for retirement. Today, things have drastically changed: Life expectancy exceeds 80 years in many countries, and one should expect to live and consume many years after retirement. Thus, we have many investors with various investment horizons, where the length of the investment horizon becomes a crucial factor in determining the best investment diversification.This book analyzes the effect of the investment horizon on the optimal diversification, specifically between stocks and bonds: Should a young investor and an older investor have the same portfolio? Is it recommended to savers for retirement to change the asset allocation between stocks and bonds as they grow older, as life cycle mutual funds do in practice? Is the idiom 'stocks for the long run' backed by scientific evidence? We analyze for which horizons it is recommended to employ the popular Mean-Variance rule and for which horizons employing this rule induces an economic distortion, hence a loss to the investors. It is shown that all relevant parameters for investment choice (means, variances, and correlations) change in a non-linear way with the horizon, a fact that makes the investment horizon crucial for investment choices. Similarly, the popular Sharpe, Treynor, and Jensen performance indices vary with the assumed horizon even in the case of independence over time. To analyze all the above issues, we employ the Mean-Variance rule and Stochastic Dominance rules, as well as direct expected utility calculations.

Financial advisors typically recommend that a long-term investor should hold a higher percentage of his wealth in stocks than a short-term investor. However, part of the academic literature disagrees with this advice. We use a spatial dominance test which is suited for comparing alternative investments when their distributions are time-varying. Using daily data for the US from 1965 to 2008, we test for dominance of cumulative returns series for stocks versus bonds at different investment horizons from one to ten years. We find that bonds second order spatially dominate stocks for one and two year horizons. For horizons of nine years or longer, we find evidence that stocks dominate bonds. When different portfolios of stocks and bonds are compared, we find that for long investment horizons, only those portfolios with a suffciently high proportion of stocks are effcient in the sense of spatial dominance. -- Investment decisions ; Investment horizon ; Stochastic dominance.

"One of the ten best investing books of all time."--The Washington Post One of investing's most celebrated icons updates his classic work to reflect today's world and markets In this long-awaited and eagerly anticipated update, Jeremy iegel provides his legendary perspective and guidance to an investment world turned upside down. Stocks for the Long Run combines a compelling and timely portrait of today's turbulent stock market with the strategies, tools, and techniques investors need to maintain their focus and achieve meaningful stock returns over time. This completely updated edition includes entirely new data, charts, and figures as it provides answers on the five major issues concerning investors and professionals today: How will events related to September 11 tragedy affect long-term market returns? What behavioral roadblocks stand in the way of achieving financial success? Are "countries" still relevant for global investing? Will stock "indexing" match its past performance? Can tomorrow's stock market deliver the same returns as markets in the past? Praise for previous editions of Stocks for the Long Run: "Should command a central place on the desk of any 'amateur' investor or beginning professional."--Barron's "A simply great book."--Forbes

In recent research on asset allocation attention has been paid to time variations in the expected return on stocks. In particular, how does the long horizon variation in expected returns influence the inter-temporal hedging demand for stocks. Unfortunately, this problem for investors leads to a complex mathematical problem. As a result, the solution to the investor's problem must be approximated. Up to now researchers have used low order approximations without knowing the amount of approximation error in their solutions. This issue is vitally import to investment managers given the possible variation of expected returns between bull and bear markets. In our previous research CCCH (2005), CCH (2006, 2007a, 2007b, 2007c, 2007d) on asset pricing models, we have shown that financial economic problems can be solved using analytic methods. Analytic methods allow one to represent the solution to financial problems with Taylor polynomials. This solutions can be quickly calculated on a standard { it PC}. In addition, it is possible to find the radius of convergence for a given financial problem, which allows one to find bounds on the error in the polynomial approximation. For example CCH (2007c) solve Campbell and Cochrane's (1999) asset pricing model with a $260^{th}$ order Taylor polynomial in less than ten seconds. In this case the error is less than one in a billion dollars for dividend growth in the range of plus or minus $20 %$ per month around the historic average dividend growth. Thus, it is feasible to quickly and accurately solve financial problems. While the investor's problem of allocation between stocks and bonds is mathematically more complex than the asset pricing problems, we have been able to use the analytic method to quickly and accurately solve this problem as well. To capture the non-linear behavior of the optimal investment decision we find that the order of approximation must be substantially higher than currently used by researchers. The purpose of this research project is to document the characteristics of this solution over ranges of expected returns on stock which would be observed over standard fluctuations in the stock market. In carrying out this project we will use state of the art statistical procedures to document the long-run predictability of stock returns. This analysis would help us place confidence bounds on the optimal inter-temporal hedging demand for stocks. Thus, the purpose of this project is to improve investment management techniques over bull and bear markets.

The stock-investing classic--UPDATED TO HELP YOU WIN IN TODAY'S CHAOTIC GLOBAL ECONOMY Much has changed since the last edition of Stocks for the Long Run. The financial crisis, the deepest bear market since the Great Depression, and the continued growth of the emerging markets are just some of the contingencies directly affecting every portfolio inthe world. To help you navigate markets and make the best investment decisions, Jeremy Siegel has updated his bestselling guide to stock market investing. This new edition of Stocks for the Long Run answers all the important questions of today: How did the crisis alter the financial markets and the future of stock returns? What are the sources of long-term economic growth? How does the Fed really impact investing decisions? Should you hedge against currency instability? Stocks for the Long Run, Fifth Edition, includes brand-new coverage of: THE FINANCIAL CRISIS Siegel provides an expert’s analysis of the most important factors behind the crisis; the state of current stability/instability of the financial system and where the stock market fits in; and the viability of value investing as a long-term strategy. CHINA AND INDIA The economies of these nations are more than one-third larger than they were before the 2008 financial crisis; you'll get the information you need to earn long-termprofits in this new environment. GLOBAL MARKETS Learn all there is to know about the nature, size, and role of diversification in today’s global economy; Siegel extends his projections of the global economy until the end of this century. MARKET VALUATION Can stocks still provide 6 to 7 percent per year after inflation? This edition forecasts future stock returns and shows how to determine whether the market is overvalued or not. Essential reading for every investor and advisor who wants to fully understand the forces that move today's markets, Stocks for the Long Run provides the most complete summary available of historical trends that will help you develop a sound and profitable long-term portfolio. PRAISE FOR STOCKS FOR THE LONG RUN: “Jeremy Siegel is one of the great ones.” —JIM CRAMER, CNBC’s Mad Money “[Jeremy Siegel’s] contributions to finance and investing are of such significance as to change the direction of the profession.” —THE FINANCIAL ANALYST INSTITUTE “A simply great book.” —FORBES “One of the top ten business books of the year.” —BUSINESSWEEK “Should command a central place on the desk of any ‘amateur’ investor or beginning professional.” —BARRON’S “Siegel’s case for stocks is unbridled and compelling.” —USA TODAY “A clearly written, neatly organized, highly persuasive exposition that lifts the veil of mystery from investing.” —JOHN C. BOGLE, founder and former Chairman, The Vanguard Group

There is no shortage of financial literature about when to buy a stock, but determining a strategy for holding or selling a stock is also essential. Investors must consider several factors before buying or selling an investment, including how much risk they're willing to take and when they'll need the money. In other words, investors should have a financial plan that outlines their investment and financial goals for the short and long term. This book will look at some of the factors for when and why investors might sell a stock.

Want to build long-term, sustainable wealth? Then stay out of the stock market! That’s radically different advice from what the "experts" have served up for decades... but look at the miserable results those pundits have delivered! Investors who’ve chosen equity-based buy-and-hold approaches have seen their assets decline dramatically: not just for a year, but often for decades. Fortunately, there are better ways to invest — and Never Buy Another Stock Again reveals them. Renowned Reuters financial journalist David Gaffen first explains why stocks are an even worse short- and long-term investment than you realize. Next, he shows how to create a balanced portfolio that reflects a "big-picture," holistic approach, intelligently incorporating cash, real estate, retirement funds, savings, and other holdings. Gaffen’s strategies rely primarily on investments outside the stock market, while identifying strictly limited roles for mutual funds and ETFs. Readers will learn how to: dramatically reduce investing costs that can kill your returns; invest in an environment where double-digit returns can never be expected; overcome huge flaws in conventional diversification strategies; and offset risks associated with existing equity ownership.