This book introduces the concept of policy decision emergence and its dynamics at the sub systemic level of the decision process. This level constitutes the breeding ground of the emergence of policy decisions but remains unexplored due to the absence of adequate tools. It is a nonlinear complex system made of several entities that interact dynamically. The behavior of such a system cannot be understood with linear and deterministic methods. The book presents an innovative multidisciplinary approach that results in the development of a Policy Decision Emergence Simulation Model (PODESIM). This computational model is a multi-level fuzzy inference system that allows the identification of the decision emergence levers. This development represents a major advancement in the field of public policy decision studies. It paves the way for decision emergence modeling and simulation by bridging complex systems theory, multiple streams theory, and fuzzy logic theory.

Rule-based fuzzy modeling has been recognised as a powerful technique for the modeling of partly-known nonlinear systems. Fuzzy models can effectively integrate information from different sources, such as physical laws, empirical models, measurements and heuristics. Application areas of fuzzy models include prediction, decision support, system analysis, control design, etc. Fuzzy Modeling for Control addresses fuzzy modeling from the systems and control engineering points of view. It focuses on the selection of appropriate model structures, on the acquisition of dynamic fuzzy models from process measurements (fuzzy identification), and on the design of nonlinear controllers based on fuzzy models. To automatically generate fuzzy models from measurements, a comprehensive methodology is developed which employs fuzzy clustering techniques to partition the available data into subsets characterized by locally linear behaviour. The relationships between the presented identification method and linear regression are exploited, allowing for the combination of fuzzy logic techniques with standard system identification tools. Attention is paid to the trade-off between the accuracy and transparency of the obtained fuzzy models. Control design based on a fuzzy model of a nonlinear dynamic process is addressed, using the concepts of model-based predictive control and internal model control with an inverted fuzzy model. To this end, methods to exactly invert specific types of fuzzy models are presented. In the context of predictive control, branch-and-bound optimization is applied. The main features of the presented techniques are illustrated by means of simple examples. In addition, three real-world applications are described. Finally, software tools for building fuzzy models from measurements are available from the author.

Decision making and control are two fields with distinct methods for solving problems, and yet they are closely related. This book bridges the gap between decision making and control in the field of fuzzy decisions and fuzzy control, and discusses various ways in which fuzzy decision making methods can be applied to systems modeling and control.Fuzzy decision making is a powerful paradigm for dealing with human expert knowledge when one is designing fuzzy model-based controllers. The combination of fuzzy decision making and fuzzy control in this book can lead to novel control schemes that improve the existing controllers in various ways. The following applications of fuzzy decision making methods for designing control systems are considered: OCo Fuzzy decision making for enhancing fuzzy modeling. The values of important parameters in fuzzy modeling algorithms are selected by using fuzzy decision making.OCo Fuzzy decision making for designing signal-based fuzzy controllers. The controller mappings and the defuzzification steps can be obtained by decision making methods.OCo Fuzzy design and performance specifications in model-based control. Fuzzy constraints and fuzzy goals are used.OCo Design of model-based controllers combined with fuzzy decision modules. Human operator experience is incorporated for the performance specification in model-based control.The advantages of bringing together fuzzy control and fuzzy decision making are shown with multiple examples from real and simulated control systems."

Every day decision making and decision making in complex human-centric systems are characterized by imperfect decision-relevant information. Main drawback of the existing decision theories is namely incapability to deal with imperfect information and modeling vague preferences. Actually, a paradigm of non-numerical probabilities in decision making has a long history and arose also in Keynes’s analysis of uncertainty. There is a need for further generalization – a move to decision theories with perception-based imperfect information described in NL. The languages of new decision models for human-centric systems should be not languages based on binary logic but human-centric computational schemes able to operate on NL-described information. Development of new theories is now possible due to an increased computational power of information processing systems which allows for computations with imperfect information, particularly, imprecise and partially true information, which are much more complex than computations over numbers and probabilities. The monograph exposes the foundations of a new decision theory with imperfect decision-relevant information on environment and a decision maker’s behavior. This theory is based on the synthesis of the fuzzy sets theory with perception-based information and the probability theory. The book is self containing and represents in a systematic way the decision theory with imperfect information into the educational systems. The book will be helpful for teachers and students of universities and colleges, for managers and specialists from various fields of business and economics, production and social sphere.

The last decade has experienced major societal challenges at the intersection of technological systems and policy making. Prevalent examples are the liberalization of energy and telecommunications markets, the public aversion towards nuclear power plants, the development of high-speed trains, the debates about global warming and sustainability, the development of intelligent vehicle systems, and the controversies concerning the location of waste depositories, airports, and energy systems. These challenges, coupled with the call from industry for a systems-engineering oriented approach to policy analysis, motivated Delft University of Technology to launch the first European School of Systems Engineering, Policy Analysis. and Management (SEPA). The purpose was to educate engineering oriented policy analysts in bridging the gap between engineering systems and policy decision making processes, both for the public and private sector. Up to now, more than 500 first-year students and 30 Ph.D. students have enrolled in the program. In 1993, I set up a class called Quantitative Methods for Problem Solving which had to address the most relevant issues in decision making for policy management, such as linear and non-linear optimization, multiattribute utility theory, multicriteria decision making, concepts from game theory, outranking relations, and probabilistic influence diagrams.

This book starts with the basic concepts of Fuzzy Logic: the membership function, the intersection and the union of fuzzy sets, fuzzy numbers, and the extension principle underlying the algorithmic operations. Several chapters are devoted to applications of Fuzzy Logic in Operations Research: PERT planning with uncertain activity durations, Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis (MCDA) with vague preferential statements, and Multi-Objective Optimization (MOO) with weighted degrees of satisfaction. New items are: Fuzzy PERT using activity durations with triangular membership functions, Fuzzy SMART with a sensitivity analysis based upon Fuzzy Logic, the Additive and the Multiplicative AHP with a similar feature, ELECTRE using the ideas of the AHP and SMART, and a comparative study of the ideal-point methods for MOO. Finally, earlier studies of colour perception illustrate the attempts to find a physiological basis for the set-theoretical and the algorithmic operations in Fuzzy Logic. The last chapter also discusses some key issues in linguistic categorization and the prospects of Fuzzy Logic as a multi-disciplinary research activity. Audience: Researchers and students working in applied mathematics, operations research, management science, business administration, econometrics, industrial engineering, information systems, artificial intelligence, mathematical psychology, and psycho-physics.