This book systematically develops essential concepts in the economics of uncertainty and game theory. It also presents new ideas for further research. The first part deals with the economics of uncertainty, including a discussion of expected utility theory and non-expected utility theories, insurance market, portfolio analysis, principal-agent theory, as well as ethical issues presented in the context of choice under uncertainty. The second part develops an understanding of game theory as a tool for analysing the interactive decision-making process.

Defending society against natural hazards is a high-stakes gameof chance against nature, involving tough decisions. How should adeveloping nation allocate its budget between building schools fortowns without ones or making existing schools earthquake-resistant?Does it make more sense to build levees to protect against floods,or to prevent development in the areas at risk? Would more lives besaved by making hospitals earthquake-resistant, or using the fundsfor patient care? What should scientists tell the public when– as occurred in L’Aquila, Italy and Mammoth Lakes,California – there is a real but small risk of an upcomingearthquake or volcanic eruption? Recent hurricanes,earthquakes, and tsunamis show that society often handles suchchoices poorly. Sometimes nature surprises us, when an earthquake,hurricane, or flood is bigger or has greater effects than expectedfrom detailed hazard assessments. In other cases, nature outsmartsus, doing great damage despite expensive mitigation measures orcausing us to divert limited resources to mitigate hazards that areoverestimated. Much of the problem comes from the fact thatformulating effective natural hazard policy involves combiningscience, economics, and risk analysis to analyze a problem andexplore the costs and benefits of different options, in situationswhere the future is very uncertain. Because mitigation policies aretypically chosen without such analysis, the results are oftendisappointing. This book uses general principles and case studiesto explore how we can do better by taking an integrated view ofnatural hazards issues, rather than treating the relevantgeoscience, engineering, economics, and policy formulationseparately. Thought-provoking questions at the end of each chapterinvite readers to confront the complex issues involved. Readership: Instructors, researchers, practitioners, andstudents interested in geoscience, engineering, economics, orpolicy issues relevant to natural hazards. Suitable for upper-levelundergraduate or graduate courses. Additional resources can be found at: ahref="http://www.wiley.com/go/Stein/Playingagainstnature"http://www.wiley.com/go/Stein/Playingagainstnature/a

Defending society against natural hazards is a high-stakes game of chance against nature, involving tough decisions. How should a developing nation allocate its budget between building schools for towns without ones or making existing schools earthquake-resistant? Does it make more sense to build levees to protect against floods, or to prevent development in the areas at risk? Would more lives be saved by making hospitals earthquake-resistant, or using the funds for patient care? What should scientists tell the public when – as occurred in L’Aquila, Italy and Mammoth Lakes, California – there is a real but small risk of an upcoming earthquake or volcanic eruption? Recent hurricanes, earthquakes, and tsunamis show that society often handles such choices poorly. Sometimes nature surprises us, when an earthquake, hurricane, or flood is bigger or has greater effects than expected from detailed hazard assessments. In other cases, nature outsmarts us, doing great damage despite expensive mitigation measures or causing us to divert limited resources to mitigate hazards that are overestimated. Much of the problem comes from the fact that formulating effective natural hazard policy involves combining science, economics, and risk analysis to analyze a problem and explore the costs and benefits of different options, in situations where the future is very uncertain. Because mitigation policies are typically chosen without such analysis, the results are often disappointing. This book uses general principles and case studies to explore how we can do better by taking an integrated view of natural hazards issues, rather than treating the relevant geoscience, engineering, economics, and policy formulation separately. Thought-provoking questions at the end of each chapter invite readers to confront the complex issues involved. Readership: Instructors, researchers, practitioners, and students interested in geoscience, engineering, economics, or policy issues relevant to natural hazards. Suitable for upper-level undergraduate or graduate courses. Additional resources can be found at: http://www.wiley.com/go/Stein/Playingagainstnature

Against Nature examines the history of the concept of nature in the tradition of Critical Theory, with chapters on Lukacs, Horkheimer and Adorno, Marcuse, and Habermas. It argues that the tradition has been marked by significant difficulties with respect to that concept; that these problems are relevant to contemporary environmental philosophy as well; and that a solution to them requires taking seriously--and literally--the idea of nature as socially constructed.

Die Spieltheorie betrachtet Entscheidungen als "Schachzüge" in einem Spiel, dessen Ausgang von den Entscheidungen aller Spieler bestimmt wird. Diese Theorie wird hier erstmals auf Investmentgeschäfte am Finanzmarkt angewendet. Nach der Definition der "Spielregeln" und der "Spieler" wird, basierend auf Formeln der Wahrscheinlichkeitsrechnung, ein Spielmodell entwickelt, das die Rentabilität von beliebigen Finanzaktionen wie Aktienkauf und -verkauf vorhersagt.

Perched in an airy penthouse above the corrupt streets of Manhattan, unlicensed P.I. Duck Darley has settled into an unlikely domestic routine with a wealthy divorcée and her precocious eight-year-old son. But old nightmares return when a desperate text from Cass Kimball, the former partner Duck once took a bullet to protect, lures him back into sworn-off vices and the sinister world of professional sports . . . Cass cries murder after her boyfriend tumbles to his death in the Catskills while researching the tragic doping experiments that changed the lives of East German Olympic athletes during the Cold War. Following the brutal killing of a champion javelin thrower, Cass herself is arrested on charges of double homicide, leaving Duck on an impossible quest for answers while doubting everything he ever believed about his secretive sidekick . . . Now, caught between the secret horrors of extreme performance enhancement and shadowy criminals who stalk him relentlessly, it’s sink or swim as Duck stumbles through a reckless investigation that endangers both his life and that of anyone he allows himself to hold dear.