Naval Analytical Capabilities assesses current Department of Defense initiatives and the Department of the Navy's progress in transitioning from a requirements-based to a capabilities-based organization. The report also provides recommendations aimed at improving the organizational structure of the Office of the Chief of Naval Operations to best position the Chief of Naval Operations to fulfill his Title 10 (U.S. Code on Armed Forces) responsibilities. This report addresses key elements of capabilities-based planning, examines Navy analytical processes, and recommends an approach to making improvements.

Naval Analytical Capabilities assesses current Department of Defense initiatives and the Department of the Navy's progress in transitioning from a requirements-based to a capabilities-based organization. The report also provides recommendations aimed at improving the organizational structure of the Office of the Chief of Naval Operations to best position the Chief of Naval Operations to fulfill his Title 10 (U.S. Code on Armed Forces) responsibilities. This report addresses key elements of capabilities-based planning, examines Navy analytical processes, and recommends an approach to making improvements.

At the request of the Chief of Naval Operations, the National Research Council, under the auspices of the Naval Studies Board, established a committee to assess the Department of the Navy's current and future naval theater missile defense (TMD) capabilities. The Committee for Naval Forces' Capability for Theater Missile Defense first convened in April 2000 and met approximately 2 days a month for 8 months. This report is based on the information presented to the committee during that period and on the committee members' accumulated experience and expertise in military operations, systems, and technologies.

This comprehensive volume provides a thorough overview of 20th- and 21st-century military doctrines worldwide. Military Doctrine: A Reference Handbook takes a thorough look at 20th- and 21st-century military doctrines around the world. It excerpts relevant English-language scholarly and governmental literature to paint a picture of how military doctrine has developed in recent history, what military doctrines are currently operating on the world stage, and where military doctrine is heading in the near future. The book casts a wide net, scanning the relevant government documents, international agreements, monographs, journals, conference papers, and Internet resources to present a thorough overview of the importance of military doctrine in today's highly unstable world. Because military institutions are important formulators of national military doctrine and not merely implementers, this book examines the roles played by military organizations around the world. With the proliferation of independent military scholars and the widespread influence of their work in the Internet age, the book also scans the "gray" literature and describes its effects on military doctrine.

This report describes an approach to high-level decision support for a Joint Forces Air Component Commander in combat operations or a Chief of Staff in defense planning. Its central theme is the fundamental importance of dealing effectively with uncertainty, whether in effects-based operations, building the Air Force's Commander's Predictive Environment, or planning future forces with the methods of capabilities-based planning. Because many features of the future cannot be predicted with reasonable confidence, it is better to proceed with the expectation of surprise developments and to have skill in recognizing adaptations and making them than it is to treat uncertainty merely as an annoyance. This report sketches the framework of a high-level decision-support environment that is top-down, expresses concepts in simple and intuitive language, deals explicitly with risk and uncertainty, and provides the capability for decisionmakers to readily discover and question the bases for key assumptions and assessments. It can accommodate both "rational-analytic" and "naturalistic" decisionmakers, allowing them to produce strategies that are flexible, adaptive, and robust (FAR). Two explicit methods and their related tools are described. The first involves portfolio-style thinking and analysis, a good mechanism for balancing risks and other considerations in choosing a course of action. The second is a novel modification of foresight exercises that addresses the need to include humans effectively in dealing with uncertainty. A more extensive discussion of available methods and enabling technologies is also presented, along with some recommendations about investment priorities.

The Office of Naval Research (ONR) has the responsibility for defining and sponsoring research and development (R&D) necessary to support both the current and future requirements of the Navy and Marine Corps. To accomplish this mission, ONR must fund a broad spectrum of research, ranging from basic research needed to open up new options for the long-term to near-term advanced technology development to support the current fleet. Moreover, ONR must make its R&D funding decisions in the presence of uncertainty: uncertainty in required capabilities, in performance requirements, and in the feasibility of a technology or R&D approach. This monograph describes the adaptation of an R&D portfolio management (PortMan) decision framework developed by the RAND Corporation to support ONR's R&D decisionmaking, and the demonstration of its use by means of a case study evaluation of 20 sample ONR applied-research projects. PortMan computes the expected value of an R&D project as the product of three factors estimated by experts: value to the military of the capability sought through R&D, the extent to which the performance potential matches the level required to achieve the capability, and the project's transition probability. This approach allows identification of those R&D projects with high-value capabilities but formidable technical or fielding problems that remain to be solved-projects for which management attention may have the greatest leverage.