Ethiopia’s food systems are rapidly evolving, being driven by major contextual changes including high population growth, rapid urbanization, infrastructure investments, and income growth. These changes are illustrated by dietary, agricultural, and supply chain transformations. These transformations in Ethiopia’s food systems are expected to continue at a rapid pace given similar even more pronounced changes going forward. We expect to see especially rapid growth in commercial food markets. This will have enormous implications on farming and on the required development of efficient private-led agricultural input supply, logistics, trading, and distribution sectors.

This study aims to inform the implementation in Ethiopia of the AgrInvest-Food Systems Project, a collaboration between the Food and Agricultural Organization of the United Nations (FAO) and the European Centre for Development Policy Management (ECDPM) to promote private investment in African food systems that contributes to sustainable development objectives. The study analyses the Ethiopian food system, identifying and explaining notable trends, important socio-economic, food security and nutrition and environmental outcomes generated by the food system, as well as the structural factors, institutions, and actors that shape food system outcomes in Ethiopia.

Ethiopia has experienced impressive agricultural growth and poverty reduction, stemming in part from substantial public investments in agriculture. Yet, the agriculture sector now faces increasing land and water constraints along with other challenges to growth. Ethiopia’s Agrifood System: Past Trends, Present Challenges, and Future Scenarios presents a forward-looking analysis of Ethiopia’s agrifood system in the context of a rapidly changing economy. Growth in the agriculture sector remains essential to continued poverty reduction in Ethiopia and will depend on sustained investment in the agrifood system, especially private sector investment. Many of the policies for a successful agricultural and rural development strategy for Ethiopia are relevant for other African countries, as well. Ethiopia’s Agrifood System should be a valuable resource for policymakers, development specialists, and others concerned with economic development in Africa south of the Sahara.

The International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI) began research activities in Ethiopia in the 1980s to assess the root causes of drought-related food-production shortages and support adoption of appropriate policy responses. IFPRI’s rigorous empirical research contributed to a broader understanding of economic development processes in Ethiopia and built capacity to conduct such research on a national scale. Working with many long-standing partners, IFPRI evaluated strategies for achieving sustainable agricultural growth, investment in agricultural research, the provision of safety nets to strengthen resilience, prioritization of nutrition interventions for women and children, property rights, and management of natural resources, among other goals. Evidence from this and other work informed programs and initiatives to improve food and nutrition security for vulnerable people.

Ethiopia has witnessed significant reductions in child mortality, undernutrition, and communicable diseases, but more substantial and faster progress is still needed. The rise in obesity and in noncommunicable diseases, particularly in urban areas, is alarming and requires urgent policy and programmatic attention. Unhealthy diets drive both undernutrition and obesity and are the underlying cause of significant proportion of both communicable and non-communicable diseases. Maintaining the relatively high breastfeeding practices and increasing the diversity of diets will be critical to improving nutrition in Ethiopia. Implementation of effective nutrition messaging that shapes consumer behavior to adopt healthy dietary patterns, while bridging gaps in both the reach and the quality of such messaging is warranted. The health extension program, which is the cornerstone of the transformation of the health sector, may need to be redesigned in a way that improves its reach and the quality of the services it provides and minimizes the risk of burnout of frontline health workers. Interventions focusing on making healthy diets available, affordable, and accessible are urgently needed.

This report takes a spatial approach to study Ethiopia’s rural development strategies. It highlights the need to develop stronger and more functional linkages between rural and urban areas. As such, the development of intermediary cities and small urban centres provides large scope for inclusive rural transformation. The report is the result of rigorous analysis, and extensive consultations with national and international stakeholders. It identifies some of the key challenges faced by rural areas and provides a series of recommendations to enhance Ethiopia’s rural development strategies.

The herd dynamics model (HDM) component of the Linked Economic and Animal Systems (LEAS) model specifically documented here is developed in the context of the Feed the Future Innovation Lab for Livestock Systems financed by the United States Agency for International Development (USAID) and managed by the University of Florida’s Institute of Food and Animal Sciences. The main objective of this project is to develop a comprehensive analytical approach or systems model capable of assessing (i) how animal herd or flock sizes change over time and in response to on-farm policies; (ii) how alternative national trends and policies affect future development of the livestock system as a whole; (iii) how changes in livestock policies affect people working throughout the livestock system; and (iv) how changes in animal-source food (ASF) production and prices affect the real incomes and consumption patterns of different population groups. The HDM developed provides a highly detailed description of the cattle sector while laying a framework that can be easily adapted to other types of livestock. The model allows one to closely examine the performance of the livestock sector disaggregated by agroecology zones or regions. The HDM is linked both ways with a core economywide model through economic variables such as relative prices of livestock activities, prices and availability of intermediate inputs including feed, and changes in supply of livestock capital in the meat and milk production sectors. Given the complex interplay in the livestock sector such as offtake decisions, death rates, milk and meat yield, and feeding practices (through quality indexed feed demand), the HDM developed under this project is a fully dynamic livestock sector model that provides several avenues for policy analysis on livestock management, the sector’s future trajectory, and its dynamics, given risks and opportunities within the sector and beyond.