Myanmar has been fortunate in thus far having one of the lowest caseloads of COVID-19 per population globally, with under 400 confirmed cases as of early August. However, as a developing economy still beset by high rates of poverty and vulnerability, Myanmar is highly susceptible to the economic and social disruptions stemming from COVID-19. These disruptions began with the closure of the Chinese border and the cessation of agricultural exports in late January, followed in February and March by further disruptions to trade, tourism, manufacturing, and remittances. However, an economic simulation analysis by Diao et al. (2020) suggests that the most severe economic impacts of COVID-19 stemmed from the temporary lockdown policies imposed in late March, which – though necessary to prevent the further spread of the virus – led to significant disruptions throughout the economy, including the agri-food sector and the rural economy. Phone survey evidence on agricultural and industrial value chains demonstrates that economic disruptions related to COVID-19 are pervasive and significant (Fang et al, 2020; Goeb, Boughton, and Maredia 2020; Goeb et al. 2020, Takeshima, Win, and Masias 2020a, 2020b). In aggregate, economic simulations predict a modest contraction in Myanmar’s gross domestic product in 2020 (compared to rapid growth forecasted in the absence of COVID-19), but a more significant reduction in household incomes at around 12 percent on average.

Key findings ▪ Ninety-two percent of urban communities and 90 percent of rural communities experienced a decline in income of at least 20 percent compared to a year before due to lower income from both non-farm employment and crop farming. ▪ Compared to data collected in 2020 survey rounds, we see a shift towards reduction in food expenditures and selling agricultural and non-agricultural assets in 2021. Fifty-four percent of communities reduced food expenditure to cope with declining income in September 2021, compared to 17 percent in September 2020. ▪ Twenty-seven percent of communities experienced closed banks and 12 percent of communities reported cash shortage at their local ATMs.

COVID-19 prevention measures are at their lowest levels since June 2020. However, several restrictions were recently implemented to curtail political unrest that are likely to also slow the spread of the virus. Communities have experienced further reductions in employment opportunities. The estimated share of adults who are unemployed is at its highest level since June 2020. In May 2021, respondents estimated that nearly half of adults in urban communities and 37 percent of adults in rural communities were unemployed in the past month. Agricultural production thus far appears robust but has suffered from poor weather conditions, whereas crop sales are affected by low crop prices and mobility restrictions. The share of households receiving remittances is estimated to be only half of those receiving remittances at the end of 2020. Whereas the end of the year is traditionally a period where more remittances are received, the recent decline is likely also related to challenges in the financial sector and to reduction in domestic employment, especially in urban areas. Financial services are disrupted in two-thirds of the communities. These disruptions include bank closures (in 58 percent of communities), challenges in meeting loan officers (19 percent), and shortages of money in ATMs (7 percent). There is a stark increase in the share of households who urgently need assistance. Community respondents estimate that in May 2021 one-third of households on average are in urgent need of assistance, which is twice as high as the share estimated in July 2020. Coping mechanisms have changed since mid-2020 with communities no longer receiving cash-based assistance. Households are relying less on credit and loans. Instead, they are increasingly reducing both food and non-food expenditures and selling agricultural and non-agricultural assets.

Many governments imposed stringent lockdowns during the COVID-19 pandemic as a public health measure to suppress the spread of the disease. With consumer incomes already depressed, the potential impacts of these measures on urban food prices are of particular concern. This working paper examines the changes in Myanmar’s urban food prices during lockdown using detailed food price data collected from a panel of phone surveys conducted in August and September 2020 of 431 family-owned retail shops in Myanmar’s two largest cities, Yangon and Mandalay. We find that the supply side of Myanmar’s food retail sector was largely resilient to the shocks and lockdowns throughout the first six months of the COVID-19 pandemic. Estimates from a fixed effects differencein-differences model reveal that food prices were 3 percent higher in townships under lockdown compared to those not under lockdown, a statistically significant but modest effect. Lockdowns had smaller effects on prices for highly processed food items sourced directly from companies, but larger effects on prices for raw or lightly processed commodities sourced through wholesale markets, which comprise a larger share of urban consumer’s diets. Retailer margins did not change significantly under lockdown restrictions, suggesting no evidence of price gouging. Overall, our findings of a modest impact of the lockdown on urban food prices underscore the importance of keeping the food supply chain–including wholesale markets and retail shops–functioning as completely and as safely as possible during times of crisis, as was mostly the case early in the crisis for the two cities in this study.

Key findings Forty-two percent of farming communities experienced lower agricultural production than normal in the past 12 months, mainly due to drought and pests. Forty-four percent of farming communities reported greater difficulties in selling agricultural products than usual. Low crop price was the most frequently reported disruption. There are pressing concerns for the upcoming monsoon season harvest. Inorganic fertilizer prices are skyrocketing–compound fertilizer prices increased 56 percent in September 2021 compared to September 2020 while urea prices increased 72 percent compared to last year. About one-third of farming communities hired fewer agricultural wage workers this year compared to last year, with 46 percent reporting that this was mainly due to financial problems. For the current monsoon season, 45 percent of farming communities expect overall agricultural production will be lower than that of last year. Recommended actions Implement measures such as input subsidies, vouchers, or agricultural grants to limit the impact of the price increases of fertilizers and other inputs on agricultural production. As farming communities risk falling into vicious cycles of income loss, financial support is urgently needed to avoid long-lasting impacts of the crises on the agricultural performance of affected communities. Social protection is urgently needed in rural areas, including food/cash for work schemes to offset lower demand for agricultural labor.

It is estimated that nearly one in seven people — more than 1 billion in total — are classified as migrants in national statistics. Of these, about 763 million are estimated to be internal migrants; the remaining 281 million are international migrants (International Organization for Migration 2021). Migration is an intrinsic part of the development process, representing one of the greatest opportunities to facilitate economic and social advancement in developing countries. Understanding how different types of individuals and households perceive these opportunities and overcome related constraints, and how these change over time, is of key interest. At the same time, migration presents one of the world’s biggest challenges, requiring adjustments by both sending and hosting communities, and understanding those adjustments is a priority. The CGIAR Research Program on Policies, Institutions, and Markets (PIM) has undertaken more than 40 studies designed to explore the causes and consequences of internal and international migration. In aggregate, the studies help us understand what motivates people to migrate and what factors impinge on their ability to do so. These studies focused on the relationship of migration with rural transformation, gender, youth, climate change, and social protection and cut across the whole PIM research portfolio. This brief synthesizes findings from this research in an attempt to present a more complete picture. While there is a vast literature on migration external to PIM and CGIAR, the results of the PIM investiga­tions constitute valuable inputs into national pol­icies and programs designed to foster economic and social development while maximizing the benefits and reducing the risks of migration.

Between April and October 2020, the International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI) and Michigan State University (MSU), with support from the United States Agency of International Development (USAID) and the Livelihoods and Food Security Fund (LIFT), have undertaken analyses of secondary data combined with regular telephone surveys of actors at all stages of Myanmar’s agri-food system in order to better understand the impacts of COVID-19 on the system. These analyses show that the volume of agribusiness has slowed considerably in Myanmar since COVID-19 restrictions were put in place. There is lower demand from farmers for agricultural inputs and mechanization services and lower volumes of produce traded, especially exports to neighboring countries whose borders are closed. All actors in the agri-food system are facing liquidity constraints and experiencing increased difficulties in both borrowing and recovering loans.