The transition from defined benefit to defined contribution retirement plans represents the most significant change in both the private sector and civil service employee retirement systems in the last twenty years. The Thrift Savings Plan (TSP), a tax-deferred, defined contribution plan for federal civilian employees, was established in 1986 as part of the Federal Employee Retirement System. This thesis discusses the costs and benefits of a TSP plan for the uniformed services. The objective of the research addresses the costs of a military TSP. Government studies, periodicals, and the Internet were examined to identify the strengths and weaknesses of the federal TSP. Next, a probabilistic spreadsheet model using Monte Carlo simulation was developed to forecast deferred tax revenue, which represents the most significant cost associated with a military TSP. An analysis of the results indicates that the simulations come within 2.6 percent of the initial Department of Defense's forecast. On October 30, 2000, the National Defense Authorization Act for fiscal year 2001 was enacted. This act included a military TSP called the Uniformed Services Payroll Savings Plan. It is recommended that future cost estimates use probabilistic spreadsheet modeling to provide more relevant information to the decision making process.

Since January 1, 2002, uniformed service members have been able to set aside a portion of their income into a tax-sheltered, defined contribution plan. This study analyzed the level of understanding and perception that military members have concerning the UNISERV TSP. It also assessed the training, education, and awareness levels in the areas of personal finance and federal income tax incentives related to retirement savings vehicles. A 35-question written questionnaire was administered to 189 military members from 43 commands in Navy Region Southwest. The study revealed that the level of training received to date is inadequate and insufficient for Navy personnel to make educated and informed decisions regarding retirement savings in general, including the UNISERV TSP (p less than or equal to .01) . Related conclusions revealed that a non- matching UNISERV TSP has no measurable effect on retention or recruitment and a matching program could improve the contribution rate by 200 percent. The predominate recommendation is for senior leadership to increase their commitment and resources toward training all Navy personnel on the mechanics and long-term benefits of the UNISERV TSP and retirement savings.

The Federal Thrift Retirement Investment Board conducted a cost analysis and concluded that extending TSP participation to members of the part-time Ready Reserve would be wasteful and a bad idea because the cost of administering a large number of small accounts would be extraordinarily high. The Board recommended that part-time reservists be excluded from participation. The Office of the Secretary of Defense (Reserve Affairs and Compensation, jointly) requested that the analysts working as part of the 9th Quadrennial Review of Military Compensation (QRMC) study this issue. This briefing summarizes our analysis in response to that request. The analysis was conducted within a short time-frame and uses available data sources to estimate the number of part-time reserve participants and their annual expected account contribution. The briefing concludes by offering several policy options.

The Federal Thrift Retirement Investment Board conducted a cost analysis and concluded that extending TSP participation to members of the part-time Ready Reserve would be wasteful and a bad idea because the cost of administering a large number of small accounts would be extraordinarily high. The Board recommended that part-time reservists be excluded from participation. The Office of the Secretary of Defense (Reserve Affairs and Compensation, jointly) requested that the analysts working as part of the 9th Quadrennial Review of Military Compensation (QRMC) study this issue. This briefing summarizes our analysis in response to that request. The analysis was conducted within a short time-frame and uses available data sources to estimate the number of part-time reserve participants and their annual expected account contribution. The briefing concludes by offering several policy options.

This research explores possible changes to the current military retirement system. The research contains a detailed explanation of the current military retirement system and its objectives; a summary of the history and past legislation affecting private sector pension plans and the military retirement system; and a discussion of major analytic studies of the military retirement system since 1969 and their impact on the current system. The costs and benefits of three alternatives to the current system are analyzed using a deterministic and stochastic analysis. These alternatives are based on benefit structure changes not explicitly reducing costs. System restructuring would change the emphasis from cutting benefits to keeping costs constant (or lower) with an equal (or greater) benefit level. This restructuring approach is based on three defined contribution options that have varied contribution percentages. The contribution percentages are designed to provide different levels of incentive for continued military service. The analysis demonstrates that each alternative is an attractive consideration for the DoD because the alternatives are aligned with the objectives of the military retirement system, cost the government less to administer, and provide greater benefit annuities to the service member.