Climate change in the Arctic Ocean has stirred a remarkable surge of interest and concern. Study after study has revealed the astonishing speed of physical, chemical, ecological, and economic change throughout the expanse of the Arctic. What is more, the consequences of the changing Arctic are not restricted to the Arctic itself, but affect everyone in the Northern Hemisphere, ranging as they do from extreme weather to resource availability and food security, with implications for politics, economics, and sociology. The challenge is to comprehend the full extent and variety of these consequences, and meeting this challenge will demand a multi- and transdisciplinary understanding. Only by this means can we hope to map out a knowledge-based ecosystem and move toward knowledge-based resource management—the essential precondition for any sustainable future. In this book, leading international experts, from many felds of science and across the entire pan-Arctic region, give their specifc takes on where the Arctic Ocean is heading. All have taken care in their writing not to exclude non-experts, in the conviction that multi- and transdisciplinarity can only be achieved when communication and outreach are not tribal in nature. The recurrent guiding theme throughout these pages is “Whith -er the Arctic Ocean?” Taken in concert, the essays synthesize the current state of scientifc knowledge to project how climate change may impact on the Arctic Ocean and the continents around it. How can and how should we prepare for the imminent future that is already lapping at the threshold of the commons? What readers will hopefully take from this multi- and transdisciplinary endeavor is not the individual perspective of each contribution, but the picture that emerges across the entire suite of essays. As we move into a near future that will encompass both the probable and surprises, this book attempts to conjure the multi-dimensional space in which a sustainable future must be brought into being.

The North Pole is being transformed from a sea-ice cap to a seasonally ice-free sea within the next few decades. This fundamental shift in the boundary conditions of the Arctic Ocean will create a new natural system with different dynamics than anything previously experienced by humans in the region. With the diminishing ice cover, interests are awakening globally to take advantage of extensive energy, shipping, fishing and tourism prospects in the Arctic Ocean. A range of states, including the major Arctic powers, are increasingly asserting their sovereignty seawards. National security policies are being declared and nuclear-capable states are adjusting their strategic deployments in the Arctic Ocean. There are forums for international cooperation in the Arctic, most notably the Arctic Council, but peace in the Arctic Ocean has yet to be explicitly established as a common interest because of the long-standing military presence. Risks of political, economic and cultural instabilities are inherent consequences. This volume proposes environmental security as providing a holistic framework to assess these security risks and then identify the appropriate adaptation and mitigation responses. Only after shared risk assessment and understanding of the appropriate responses, will there be sufficient clarity about the governance paths to pursue within the international legal framework of the law of the sea.

Partnerships in Marine Research: Case Studies, Lessons Learned, and Policy Implications provides a thorough assessment of this important approach to Marine Research. It starts by looking at the problems faced by scientists as they conduct investigations within Marine Research; it then leads into case studies where partnerships have been successful and concludes with the ultimate intended outcomes for this approach. Through these sections of the book, an experience-based framework for sustainable partnerships and science is introduced, including some key elements identifiable in the case studies presented. Elements of the framework are implicitly present in each of the case studies, including four key elements: flexibility of the partnership system, diversity (of partners and functions), redundancy, and connectivity. These four elements are important aspects of the partnership resilience and crucial to sustain and to achieve its goals. Partnerships in Marine Research guides the sustainable planning and implementation of future ocean science and technology projects, and provides a fundamental tool for researchers, engineers, and decision makers involved in collaborative Marine Research. Presents chapters from a diverse group of contributors, enabling a broad and deep perspective Includes case studies to connect the reader to successful marine research partnerships Provides key elements of resilient and sustainable partnerships throughout different project phases and a framework for supporting research partnerships in the future Projects lessons learned and conclusions toward a plausible 2050 scenario to advance and reach sustainable development goals while aiming to rebuild marine life in the Global Ocean

The Arctic is particularly affected by climate change; over the past few decades, temperatures in this area have risen twice as fast as the mean global rate. The most prominent effect of global climate change in the region is the melting sea ice in the Arctic Ocean, which enables a multitude of ocean uses to be initiated and extended, such as shipping, fishing and oil and gas extraction. Unlike in the Antarctic, there is currently no single comprehensive legal regime for governance of the Arctic. Instead, the region is regulated by a patchwork of international treaties, above all the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS), various regional and sub-regional agreements, national laws and soft-law agreements. This treatise provides an evaluation of the governance regime that regulates the use of the Arctic marine environment and its readiness to protect these fragile ecosystems in light of the consequences of climate change.

Published by the American Geophysical Union as part of the Geophysical Monograph Series, Volume 180. This volume addresses the rapid decline of Arctic sea ice, placing recent sea ice decline in the context of past observations, climate model simulations and projections, and simple models of the climate sensitivity of sea ice. Highlights of the work presented here include An appraisal of the role played by wind forcing in driving the decline; A reconstruction of Arctic sea ice conditions prior to human observations, based on proxy data from sediments; A modeling approach for assessing the impact of sea ice decline on polar bears, used as input to the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service's decision to list the polar bear as a threatened species under the Endangered Species Act; Contrasting studies on the existence of a "tipping point," beyond which Arctic sea ice decline will become (or has already become) irreversible, including an examination of the role of the small ice cap instability in global warming simulations; A significant summertime atmospheric response to sea ice reduction in an atmospheric general circulation model, suggesting a positive feedback and the potential for short-term climate prediction. The book will be of interest to researchers attempting to understand the recent behavior of Arctic sea ice, model projections of future sea ice loss, and the consequences of sea ice loss for the natural and human systems of the Arctic.

This edited collection explores how narratives about the future of the Arctic have been produced historically up until the present day. The contemporary deterministic and monolithic narrative is shown to be only one of several possible ways forward. This book problematizes the dominant prediction that there will be increased shipping and resource extraction as the ice melts and shows how this seemingly inevitable future has consequences for the action that can be taken in the present. This collection looks to historical projections about the future of the Arctic, evaluating why some voices have been heard and championed, while others remain marginalised. It questions how these historical perspectives have shaped resource allocation and governance structures to understand the forces behind change in the Arctic region. Considering the history of individuals and institutions, their political and economic networks and their perceived power, the essays in this collection offer new perspectives on how the future of the Arctic has been produced and communicated.

During the 1990s, a government program brought together environmental scientists and members of the intelligence community to consider how classified assets and data could be applied to further the understanding of environmental change. As part of the Medea program, collection of overhead classified imagery of sea ice at four sites around the Arctic basin was initiated in 1999, and two additional sites were added in 2005. Collection of images during the summer months at these six locations has continued until the present day. Several hundred unclassified images with a nominal resolution of 1 meter have been derived from the classified images collected at the 6 Arctic sites. To assist in the process of making the unclassified derived imagery more widely useful, the National Research Council reviewed the derived images and considered their potential uses for scientific research. In this book, we explore the importance of sea ice in the Arctic and illustrate the types of information-often unique in its detail-that the derived images could contribute to the scientific discussion.