The Department of Homeland Security is moving increasingly to risk analysis and risk-based resource allocation, a process that is designed to manage the greatest risks instead of attempting to protect everything. The authors show how a probabilistic terrorism model can be used to assess terrorist risk across cities and within specific cities, and to assist intelligence analysis.

When are terrorists likeliest to attack next? Will they use chemical, biological, radiological, or nuclear (CBRN) weapons or resort to sabotage or conventional attacks? What locations and facilities will they target? What economic impact would a conventional attack on a piece of critical infrastructure have in comparison with a nuclear attack? The Office of Intelligence and Analysis (OI & A) at DHS is responsible for using information and intelligence from multiple sources to identify and assess current and future threats to the United States. This report documents the results of analysis using a risk-analysis tool, the Risk Management Solutions (RMS) Probabilistic Terrorism Model, to help OI & A with this challenge.

The events of September 11, 2001 changed perceptions, rearranged national priorities, and produced significant new government entities, including the U.S. Department of Homeland Security (DHS) created in 2003. While the principal mission of DHS is to lead efforts to secure the nation against those forces that wish to do harm, the department also has responsibilities in regard to preparation for and response to other hazards and disasters, such as floods, earthquakes, and other "natural" disasters. Whether in the context of preparedness, response or recovery from terrorism, illegal entry to the country, or natural disasters, DHS is committed to processes and methods that feature risk assessment as a critical component for making better-informed decisions. Review of the Department of Homeland Security's Approach to Risk Analysis explores how DHS is building its capabilities in risk analysis to inform decision making. The department uses risk analysis to inform decisions ranging from high-level policy choices to fine-scale protocols that guide the minute-by-minute actions of DHS employees. Although DHS is responsible for mitigating a range of threats, natural disasters, and pandemics, its risk analysis efforts are weighted heavily toward terrorism. In addition to assessing the capability of DHS risk analysis methods to support decision-making, the book evaluates the quality of the current approach to estimating risk and discusses how to improve current risk analysis procedures. Review of the Department of Homeland Security's Approach to Risk Analysis recommends that DHS continue to build its integrated risk management framework. It also suggests that the department improve the way models are developed and used and follow time-tested scientific practices, among other recommendations.

A primary mission of the Dept. of Homeland Security (DHS) is to ¿prevent terrorist attacks within the U.S., reduce the vulnerability of the U.S. to terrorism, and minimize the damage, and assist in the recovery from terrorist attacks that do occur in the U.S.¿ Since its inception, DHS has had an intelligence component to support this mission. Following a reorganization of the DHS in 2005, a strengthened Office of Intelligence and Analysis (I&A) was established. This report provides an overview of DHSI, and examines how it is organized and supports key departmental activities to include homeland security analysis and threat warning; border security; critical infrastructure protection; and sharing of info. with, state, local, and private sector partners.