Technological Learning in the Transition to a Low-Carbon Energy System: Conceptual Issues, Empirical Findings, and Use in Energy Modeling quantifies key trends and drivers of energy technologies deployed in the energy transition. It uses the experience curve tool to show how future cost reductions and cumulative deployment of these technologies may shape the future mix of the electricity, heat and transport sectors. The book explores experience curves in detail, including possible pitfalls, and demonstrates how to quantify the 'quality' of experience curves. It discusses how this tool is implemented in models and addresses methodological challenges and solutions. For each technology, current market trends, past cost reductions and underlying drivers, available experience curves, and future prospects are considered. Electricity, heat and transport sector models are explored in-depth to show how the future deployment of these technologies--and their associated costs--determine whether ambitious decarbonization climate targets can be reached - and at what costs. The book also addresses lessons and recommendations for policymakers, industry and academics, including key technologies requiring further policy support, and what scientific knowledge gaps remain for future research. Provides a comprehensive overview of trends and drivers for major energy technologies expected to play a role in the energy transition Delivers data on cost trends, helping readers gain insights on how competitive energy technologies may become, and why Reviews the use of learning curves in environmental impacts for lifecycle assessments and energy modeling Features social learning for cost modeling and technology diffusion, including where consumer preferences play a major role

The U.S. government and others around the world have been exploring strategies to respond to climate change for nearly two decades. Consideration of these efforts as well as the 2010 oil spill in the Gulf of Mexico, the 2011 nuclear accident at Fukushima Daichi, and improved shale gas recovery methods are spurring debate on energy policy options. An important focus of this debate is the role of innovation in reducing carbon emissions while also maintaining the affordability of energy supplies. The scale of the required transition to a low-carbon energy system is large. A simple calculation scheme based on the Kaya identity is used to evaluate this transition and to estimate the magnitude of the changes that would be required. The recent performance of the U.S. economy with respect to decarbonization and energy intensity is shown to fall far short of future needs in low-carbon scenarios. The MARKAL model is used to estimate the magnitude of the capital investment required to transform the U.S. electric power sector. A comprehensive treatment of the innovation process must consider not only research and development but also the 'downstream' stages of demonstration, early adoption, and evolutionary post-commercialization improvements. Under greenhouse gas reduction scenarios, investments will be needed in low-carbon technologies when there is still considerable uncertainty and risk associated with their performance, and when they may not be competitive with incumbent energy systems. No less than investments in research and development, these are investments in innovation. A two-stage model of the innovation process is used to estimate the investment needed to bring a new technology to a competitive cost level. The model is used to explore the contributions of early-stage and later-stage investments in innovation, and illustrates the importance of the technological learning process. A case study of innovation in the nuclear energy industry is used to evaluate the effectiveness of alternative policies for driving investment in energy technologies more generally. The case study reveals a pattern of erratic policy that discouraged private investment. The use of technology-push rather than market-pull policy tools is found to have encouraged technology lock-in and discouraged market-driven innovation.

This open access book analyzes the transition toward a low-carbon energy system in Europe under the aspects of flexibility and technological progress. By covering the main energy sectors – including the industry, residential, tertiary and transport sector as well as the heating and electricity sector – the analysis assesses flexibility requirements in a cross-sectoral energy system with high shares of renewable energies. The contributing authors – all European energy experts – apply models and tools from various research fields, including techno-economic learning, fundamental energy system modeling, and environmental and social life cycle as well as health impact assessment, to develop an innovative and comprehensive energy models system (EMS). Moreover, the contributions examine renewable penetrations and their contributions to climate change mitigation, and the impacts of available technologies on the energy system. Given its scope, the book appeals to researchers studying energy systems and markets, professionals and policymakers of the energy industry and readers interested in the transformation to a low-carbon energy system in Europe.

The world is at a pivotal crossroad in energy choices. There is a strong sense that our use of energy must be more sustainable. Moreover, many also broadly agree that a way must be found to rely increasingly on lower carbon energy sources. However, no single or clear solution exists on the means to carry out such a shift at either a national or international level. Traditional energy planning (when done) has revolved around limited cost projections that often fail to take longer term evidence and interactions of a wider set of factors into account. The good news is that evidence does exist on such change in case studies of different nations shifting toward low-carbon energy approaches. In fact, such shifts can occur quite quickly at times, alongside industrial and societal advance, innovation, and policy learning. These types of insights will be important for informing energy debates and decision-making going forward. Low Carbon Energy Transitions: Turning Points in National Policy and Innovation takes an in-depth look at four energy transitions that have occurred since the global oil crisis of 1973: Brazilian biofuels, Danish wind power, French nuclear power, and Icelandic geothermal energy. With these cases, Dr. Araújo argues that significant nationwide shifts to low-carbon energy can occur in under fifteen years, and that technological complexity is not necessarily a major impediment to such shifts. Dr. Araújo draws on more than five years of research, and interviews with over 120 different scientists, government workers, academics, and members of civil society in completing this study. Low Carbon Energy Transitions is written for for professionals in energy, the environment and policy as well as for students and citizens who are interested in critical decisions about energy sustainability. Technology briefings are provided for each of the major technologies in this book, so that scientific and non-scientific readers can engage in more even discussions about the choices that are involved.

All too often, discussion about the imperative to change national energy pathways revolves around long timescales and least cost economics of near-term energy alternatives. While both elements certainly matter, they don't fully reflect what can drive such development trajectories. This study explores national energy transitions by examining ways in which four prime mover countries of low carbon energy technology shifted away from fossil fuels, following the first global oil crisis of 1973. The research analyzes the role of readiness, sectoral contributions, and adaptive policy in the scale-up and innovations of advanced, alternative energy technologies. Cases of Brazilian biofuels, Danish wind power, French nuclear power and Icelandic geothermal energy are evaluated for a period of four decades. Fundamentally, the research finds that significant change can occur in under 15 years; that technology complexity need not impede change; and that countries of varying governance approaches and consumption levels effectuated such transitions. This research also underscores how low carbon energy technologies may be adopted before they are competitive and then become competitive in the process.

The world is at a pivotal crossroad in energy choices. There is a strong sense that our use of energy must be more sustainable. Moreover, many also broadly agree that a way must be found to rely increasingly on lower carbon energy sources. However, no single or clear solution exists on the means to carry out such a shift at either a national or international level. Traditional energy planning (when done) has revolved around limited cost projections that often fail to take longer term evidence and interactions of a wider set of factors into account. The good news is that evidence does exist on such change in case studies of different nations shifting toward low-carbon energy approaches. In fact, such shifts can occur quite quickly at times, alongside industrial and societal advance, innovation, and policy learning. These types of insights will be important for informing energy debates and decision-making going forward. Low Carbon Energy Transitions: Turning Points in National Policy and Innovation takes an in-depth look at four energy transitions that have occurred since the global oil crisis of 1973: Brazilian biofuels, Danish wind power, French nuclear power, and Icelandic geothermal energy. With these cases, Dr. Araújo argues that significant nationwide shifts to low-carbon energy can occur in under fifteen years, and that technological complexity is not necessarily a major impediment to such shifts. Dr. Araújo draws on more than five years of research, and interviews with over 120 different scientists, government workers, academics, and members of civil society in completing this study. Low Carbon Energy Transitions is written for for professionals in energy, the environment and policy as well as for students and citizens who are interested in critical decisions about energy sustainability. Technology briefings are provided for each of the major technologies in this book, so that scientific and non-scientific readers can engage in more even discussions about the choices that are involved.

Future energy technologies must embrace and achieve sustainability by displacing fossil carbon-intensive energy consumption or capture/reuse/sequester fossil carbon. This book provides a deeper knowledge on individual low (and zero) carbon technologies in a comprehensive way, covering details of recent developments on these technologies in different countries. It also covers materials and processes involved in energy generation, transmission, distribution, storage, policies, and so forth, including solar electrical; thermal systems; energy from biomass and biofuels; energy transmission, distribution, and storage; and buildings using energy-efficient lighting.