"The ongoing COVID-19 pandemic marks the most significant, singular global disruption since World War II, with health, economic, political, and security implications that will ripple for years to come." -Global Trends 2040 (2021) Global Trends 2040-A More Contested World (2021), released by the US National Intelligence Council, is the latest report in its series of reports starting in 1997 about megatrends and the world's future. This report, strongly influenced by the COVID-19 pandemic, paints a bleak picture of the future and describes a contested, fragmented and turbulent world. It specifically discusses the four main trends that will shape tomorrow's world: - Demographics-by 2040, 1.4 billion people will be added mostly in Africa and South Asia. - Economics-increased government debt and concentrated economic power will escalate problems for the poor and middleclass. - Climate-a hotter world will increase water, food, and health insecurity. - Technology-the emergence of new technologies could both solve and cause problems for human life. Students of trends, policymakers, entrepreneurs, academics, journalists and anyone eager for a glimpse into the next decades, will find this report, with colored graphs, essential reading.

Changes in technology, customer demands, competition, and the social character challenge organizations to innovate and change. How they change depends on their leaders, and their knowledge, and philosophy. To create a better future for organizations and to improve the wellbeing of customers, collaborators and communities, leaders need to be strategic thinkers. This book describes the qualities of strategic intelligence and provides the conceptual tools that equip leaders to improve and transform organizations in the age of knowledge work. These qualities include foresight, visioning, partnering both within and outside the organization, and engaging and motivating collaborators. To develop these qualities, it is necessary to articulate a leadership philosophy and to gain knowledge of systems, variation, personality psychology, and the theory of knowledge. This book uniquely integrates leadership, personality and organization. Michael Maccoby has almost unparalleled experience of working with organizations in a wide variety of contexts. He draws his insights from several disciplines - organization theory, psychoanalysis, anthropology; and from working with distinguished and pioneer thinkers. These include the psychoanalyst Erich Fromm; the systems theorist Russell Ackoff; and management pioneer W. Edwards Deming. A major challenge for leadership today is the transformation of traditional bureaucracies into learning organizations. It can't be done by following formulas or roadmaps. Leaders need the qualities and conceptual tools of strategic intelligence and this book shows them what they must do and provides exercises to develop them.

"Invisible Architects: Crafting the Future of Strategic Intelligence Analysis" is a groundbreaking book that offers a deep dive into the intricate world of intelligence analysis. This comprehensive guide is designed for a diverse audience, including students of intelligence studies, professionals in the field, and anyone fascinated by the strategic shaping of global events. Key Features: Comprehensive Coverage: Explore the full spectrum of strategic intelligence analysis, from its historical roots to the cutting-edge methodologies shaping its future. Expert Insights: Benefit from the author's extensive experience and deep understanding of the field, providing readers with expert analysis and foresight. Real-World Case Studies: Engage with a variety of case studies that bring to life the successes, failures, and lessons learned in intelligence operations across different eras. Technological Evolution: Understand the impact of emerging technologies like AI, cyber intelligence, and big data analytics on the future of intelligence analysis. Ethical and Legal Frameworks: Navigate the complex ethical and legal considerations that are integral to responsible intelligence work in the modern world. Resource-Rich Appendices: Access a wealth of additional resources, including detailed case studies, technical guides, and listings of relevant conferences and workshops. What You Will Discover: - The unseen forces and 'invisible architects' behind major global events and decisions. - The evolving role of human intelligence in an increasingly digital world. - Strategies for adapting to and preparing for future challenges in global intelligence. - The balance between technological advancements and the timeless art of human analysis. - The importance of ethical considerations and legal compliance in intelligence operations. "Invisible Architects" is not just a book; it's an invitation to think critically and engage in the ever-evolving conversation that shapes our world. Whether you're a seasoned analyst or new to the field, this book will expand your understanding of the vital role intelligence plays in our global society. Review "Invisible Architects" is a masterful exploration of the complex world of strategic intelligence analysis. The author skillfully navigates through the history, evolution, and future of intelligence work, making it accessible to both professionals in the field and those new to the subject. The real-world case studies are particularly enlightening, offering a rare glimpse into the successes and failures of intelligence operations and their profound impact on global events. What sets this book apart is its comprehensive approach, seamlessly blending historical context with an insightful examination of modern technologies like AI and cyber intelligence. The chapters on ethical and legal considerations are thought-provoking, highlighting the delicate balance intelligence professionals must maintain in today's rapidly changing world. The inclusion of resource-rich appendices further enhances the book's value, providing readers with practical tools and additional learning materials. "Invisible Architects" is not just informative but also a compelling read, inviting readers to critically engage with the material and consider their role in the broader narrative of global intelligence. A must-read for anyone interested in the behind-the-scenes dynamics that shape our world.

Information in all its forms is at the heart of the economic intelligence process. It is also a powerful vector of innovation and, more than ever, a balance between economic and societal forces. That is why a large part of Strategic Intelligence for the Future 2 analyzes the various aspects of information, from traditional processing and research to the psychological and epigenetic aspects of its development. This leads to a new vision of its integration into organizations. In addition, new technologies offer extensive access to information, including social networks which are critically analyzed here. In a complex world where geopolitics and the new concept of information warfare are becoming increasingly important, it becomes imperative to better apprehend and understand our environment, in order to develop critical thinking that will reinforce the different global aspects of security in economic intelligence.

Artificial intelligence (AI) is on everybody’s minds these days. Most of the world’s leading companies are making massive investments in it. Governments are scrambling to catch up. Every single one of us who uses Google Search or any of the new digital assistants on our smartphones has witnessed first-hand how quickly these developments now go. Many analysts foresee truly disruptive changes in education, employment, health, knowledge generation, mobility, etc. But what will AI mean for defense and security? In a new study HCSS offers a unique perspective on this question. Most studies to date quickly jump from AI to autonomous (mostly weapon) systems. They anticipate future armed forces that mostly resemble today’s armed forces, engaging in fairly similar types of activities with a still primarily industrial-kinetic capability bundle that would increasingly be AI-augmented. The authors of this study argue that AI may have a far more transformational impact on defense and security whereby new incarnations of ‘armed force’ start doing different things in novel ways. The report sketches a much broader option space within which defense and security organizations (DSOs) may wish to invest in successive generations of AI technologies. It suggests that some of the most promising investment opportunities to start generating the sustainable security effects that our polities, societies and economies expect may lie in in the realms of prevention and resilience. Also in those areas any large-scale application of AI will have to result from a preliminary open-minded (on all sides) public debate on its legal, ethical and privacy implications. The authors submit, however, that such a debate would be more fruitful than the current heated discussions about ‘killer drones’ or robots. Finally, the study suggests that the advent of artificial super-intelligence (i.e. AI that is superior across the board to human intelligence), which many experts now put firmly within the longer-term planning horizons of our DSOs, presents us with unprecedented risks but also opportunities that we have to start to explore. The report contains an overview of the role that ‘intelligence’ - the computational part of the ability to achieve goals in the world - has played in defense and security throughout human history; a primer on AI (what it is, where it comes from and where it stands today - in both civilian and military contexts); a discussion of the broad option space for DSOs it opens up; 12 illustrative use cases across that option space; and a set of recommendations for - especially - small- and medium sized defense and security organizations.