The Panel on Research on Future Census Methods has a broad charge to review the early planning process for the 2010 census. Its work includes observing the operation of the 2000 census, deriving lessons for 2010, and advising on effective evaluations and tests. This is the panel's third report; they have previously issued an interim report offering suggestions on the Census Bureau's evaluation plan for 2000 and a letter report commenting on the bureau's proposed general structure for the 2010 census.

The Panel on Research on Future Census Methods has a broad charge to review the early planning process for the 2010 census. Its work includes observing the operation of the 2000 census, deriving lessons for 2010, and advising on effective evaluations and tests. This is the panel's third report; they have previously issued an interim report offering suggestions on the Census Bureau's evaluation plan for 2000 and a letter report commenting on the bureau's proposed general structure for the 2010 census.

"Today's hearing, as the title indicates, will examine the 2010 Census Integrated Communications Campaign in hard-to-count areas. The hearing will assess and examine ethnic print and broadcast media's role in preventing an undercount. We will further examine avenues to aid the Census Bureau in its efforts to reach those who are more likely to be undercounted--children, minorities, and renters."--P. 1.

For the past 50 years, the Census Bureau has conducted experiments and evaluations with every decennial census involving field data collection during which alternatives to current census processes are assessed for a subset of the population. An "evaluation" is usually a post hoc analysis of data collected as part of the decennial census processing to determine whether individual steps in the census operated as expected. The 2010 Program for Evaluations and Experiments, known as CPEX, has enormous potential to reduce costs and increase effectiveness of the 2020 census by reducing the initial list of potential research topics from 52 to 6. The panel identified three priority experiments for inclusion in the 2010 census to assist 2020 census planning: (1) an experiment on the use of the Internet for data collection; (2) an experiment on the use of administrative records for various census purposes; and (3) an experiment (or set of experiments) on features of the census questionnaire. They also came up with 11 recommendations to improve efficiency and quality of data collection including allowing use of the Internet for data submission and including one or more alternate questionnaire experiments to examine things such as the representation of race and ethnicity.

GAO reviewed the funding of 2000 Census planning and development efforts and the impact it had on census operations. Total funding for the 2000 Census, referred to as the life cycle cost, covers a 13-year period from fiscal year 1991 through fiscal year 2003 and is expected to total $6.5 billion adjusted to 2000 year dollars. This amount was almost double the reported life cycle cost of the 1990 Census of $3.3 billion adjusted to 2000 year dollars. Considering these escalating costs, the experience of the U.S. Census Bureau in preparing for the 2000 Census offers valuable insights for the planning and development efforts now occurring for the 2010 Census. Thorough and comprehensive planning and development efforts are crucial to the ultimate efficiency and success of any large, long-term project, particularly one with the scope, magnitude, and the deadlines of the U.S. decennial census. For fiscal years 1991 through 1997, $269 million was requested in the President's Budgets for 2000 Census planning and development and the program received funding of $224 million by Congress, or 83 percent of the amount requested. According to U.S. Census Bureau records, the bulk of the $86 million in funding received through the end of fiscal year 1995 was obligated for program development and evaluation methodologies, testing and dress rehearsals, and planning for the acquisition of automated data processing and telecommunications support. The U.S. Census Bureau was responsible for carrying out its mission within the budget provided and bureau management determined the specific areas in which available resources were invested. GAO could not determine what effect, if any, that higher funding levels might have had on bureau operations as this is dependent upon actual implementation and the results of management decisions that may or may not have occurred. According to bureau officials, early planning and development efforts for the 2000 Census were adversely affected by lower funding than requested for fiscal years 1993 through 1997. They identified 10 areas where additional funding could have been beneficial. These included difficulties in retaining knowledgeable staff, scaled back plans for testing and evaluating 1990 Census data, delays in implementing a planning database, and limited resources to update address databases. The bureau's experience in preparing for the 2000 Census underscores the importance of solid, upfront planning and adequate funding levels to carry out those plans.

At the request of the U.S. Census Bureau, the National Research Council's Committee on National Statistics established the Panel on Research on Future Census Methods to review the early planning process for the 2010 census. This new report documents the panel's strong support for the major aims of the Census Bureau's emerging plan for 2010. At the same time, it notes the considerable challenges that must be overcome if the bureau's innovations are to be successful. The panel agrees with the Census Bureau that implementation of the American Community Survey and, with it, the separation of the long form from the census process are excellent concepts. Moreover, it concurs that the critically important Master Address File and TIGER geographic systems are in dire need of comprehensive updating and that new technologies have the potential to improve the accuracy of the count. The report identifies the risks and rewards of these and other components of the Census Bureau's plan. The report emphasizes the need for the bureau to link its research and evaluation efforts much more closely to operational planning and the importance of funding for a comprehensive and rigorous testing program before 2010.