Most empirical work on the U.S. Phillips curve has had a strong tendency to impose global linearity on the data. The basic objective of this paper is to reconsider the issue of nonlinearity and to underscore its importance for policymaking. After briefly reviewing the history of the Phillips curve and the basis for convexity, we derive it explicitly using standard models of wage and price determination. We provide some empirical estimates of Phillips curves and Phillips lines for the United States and use some illustrative simulations to contrast the policy implications of the two models.

Previous tests for convexity in the Phillips curve have been biased because researchers have employed filtering techniques for the NAIRU that have been fundamentally inconsistent with the existence of convexity. This paper places linear and nonlinear models of the Phillips curve on an equal statistical footing by estimating model-consistent measures of the NAIRU. After imposing plausible restrictions on the variability in the NAIRU we find that the nonlinear model fits the data best. The implications for the macroeconomic policy debate is that policymakers that are unsuccessful in stabilizing the business cycle will induce a higher natural rate of unemployment.

Since the middle of twentieth century, economists have invested great resources into using statistical evidence to relate macroeconomic theories to the real world, and many new econometric techniques have been employed. In these two volumes, a distinguished group of economic theorists, econometricians, and economic methodologists examine how evidence has been used and how it should be used to understand the real world. Volume 1 focuses on the contribution of econometric techniques to understanding the macroeconomic world. It covers the use of evidence to understand the business cycle, the operation of monetary policy, and economic growth. A further section offers assessments of the overall impact of recent econometric techniques such as cointegration and unit roots. Volume 2 focuses on the labour market and economic policy, with sections covering the IS-LM model, the labour market, new Keynesian macroeconomics, and the use of macroeconomics in official documents (in both the USA and EU). These volumes will be valuable to advanced undergraduates, graduate students, and practitioners for their clear presentation of opposing perspectives on macroeconomics and how evidence should be used. The chapters are complemented by discussion sections revealing the perspectives of other contributors on the methodological issues raised.

Over the past two decades, U.S. core PCE goods and services inflation have evolved differently. Against the backdrop of global concerns of low inflation, we use this trend as motivation to develop a bottom-up model of U.S. inflation. We find that domestic forces play a larger role relative to foreign factors in influencing core services inflation, while foreign factors predominantly drive core goods price changes. When comparing forecasting performance, we find that both the aggregate Phillips curve and the bottom up approach give low root mean square errors. The latter, however, is more informative in tracing the effects of shocks and understanding the exact channels through which they affect aggregate inflation. Using scenario analysis—and given a relatively low sensitivity of core inflation to changes in slack, both at the aggregate Phillips curve and sub-components levels—we find that global pressures will likely keep core PCE inflation below 2 percent for the foreseeable future unless the dollar starts to depreciate markedly and the unemployment rate goes well below the natural rate. These results support the accommodative stance of monetary policy pursued thus far and, going forward, underscore the need for proceeding cautiously and very gradually in raising the federal funds rate.

This paper presents an outlook for the world economy for 1997–98. With world output expected to expand by some 41⁄4 percent in both 1997 and 1998, the strongest pace in a decade, the global economy is enjoying the fourth episode of relatively rapid growth since the early 1970s. The expansion is underpinned by continued solid growth with low inflation in the United States and the United Kingdom; a strengthening recovery in Canada; a broadening of recovery across continental western Europe, notwithstanding persistent weakness in domestic demand in some of the largest countries.

This study describes the Mark III version of MULTIMOD, the IMF's multi region macroeconomic model. Mark III version of MULTIMOD differs from its predecessor in several important respects. New features include a core steady-state analogue model, a new model of teh inflation-unemployment nexus, and extended non-Ricardian specification of consumption-saving behavior, and improved specifications and estimates of investment behavior and international trade equations. In addition, the introduction of a new solution algorithm has greatly increased the robustness, speed of convergence, and accuracy of the simulations.