We use a spatial model of endogenous growth to investigate the likely impact of discriminatory integration between two advanced insider countries on their own welfare as well as on the welfare of an outsider transition economy. A first point is that, since convergence in per capita income levels depends on relative market access and local market size, piece-wise integration causes insider-outsider divergence. Nonetheless, outsiders can gain in absolute terms if integration fosters the global growth rate. We also show that exclusion from a regional agreement and on-going transition have unpredictable joint effects on the structural adjustment, which might even exhibit a swinging behaviour. Such swings may imply large adjustment costs, which can be reduced by careful integration design. With this respect, the asymmetric phasing-out of trade barriers built into the Europe Agreements seems to work in the right direction. Finally, we point out that the predictions of the model in terms of direct investment and terms-of-trade dynamics are broadly consistent with some actual developments in transition economies.

An examination of the industrial restructuring in small countries facing increased competition after European economic integration. It focuses on four countries, and argues that "Europe 1992" will benefit insiders more than outsiders.

In the late 1980s regional integration emerged as one of the most important developments in world politics. It is not a new phenomenon, however, and this 1999 book presents an analysis of integration across time, and across regions. Walter Mattli examines projects in nineteenth- and twentieth-century Europe, but also in Latin America, North America and Asia since the 1950s. Using the tools of political economy, he considers why some integration schemes have succeeded while many others have failed; what forces drive the process of integration; and under what circumstances outside countries seek to join. Unlike traditional political science approaches, the book stresses the importance of market forces in determining the outcome of integration; but unlike purely economic analyses, it also highlights the impact of institutional factors. The book will provide students of political science, economics, and European studies with a framework for the study of international cooperation.

November 1997 Regional trade agreements among small countries may have negative welfare implications for nearby countries excluded from the agreement--but they sometimes benefit from being excluded. Standard theory says that a country's welfare is unaffected by being excluded from a small regional trade agreement. But for most products, small countries and regional trade agreements do have some measure of market power. Such market power can arise if (1) supply is geographically concentrated; (2) tastes differ; (3) there is product differentiation (such as quality); (4) transport costs are high; (5) the principal importing countries impose quantitative restrictions; and (6) there is hysterisis because of irreversible costs. The authors show, based on two case studies, that regional trade agreements among small countries may have negative welfare implications for outside countries. In the first case, they find that Argentina's cattle and beef exports to Peru fell when Peru formed a regional trade agreement (the Andean Pact) with various countries, including Colombia, and exporter of the same products. Argentina also lost because of the higher unit price it received on its exports to Peru. Interestingly, Venezuela's entry into the Andean Pact (that is, the formation of a larger bloc) seems to have resulted in a welfare gain for the outside country (Argentina). In the second case, rather than examine whether formation of the Central American Common Market (CACM) had a negative impact on outside countries (for which they lacked data), they examine the impact of the CACM's breakdown on member countries. Although the CACM has essentially been trade-diverting for manufactures, it seems to have been trade-creating for white maize, with both importing and exporting member countries gaining from the regional trade agreement. So, one would expect that a breakdown of the CACM, which resulted in member countries becoming relatively more outsiders to the bloc, may have led to a decline in the welfare of both the exporting and importing member countries. This is supported by the data, and implies that if one of the five member countries had been left out of the CACM, it would have been worse off where white maize was concerned. This paper--aproduct of the Development Research Group--is part of background work for the group's program on regionalism and development.