This book examines the issue of price volatility in agricultural commodities markets and how this phenomenon has evolved in recent years. The factors underlying the price spike of 2007-08 appear to be global and macroeconomic in nature, including the rapid growth in demand by developing countries, the international financial crisis, and exchange rate movements. Some of these factors are new, appearing as influences on price volatility only in the last decade. Although volatility has always been a feature of agricultural commodity markets, the evidence suggests that volatility has increased in certain commodity markets. A growing problem is that agricultural price shocks and volatility disrupt agricultural markets, economic incentives and incomes. With increased globalization and integration of financial and energy markets with agricultural commodity markets, the relationships between markets are expanding and becoming more complex. When a crisis such as a regional drought, food safety scare or a financial crisis hits a particular market, policy-makers often do not know the extent to which it will impact on other markets and affect producer, consumer and trader decisions. Including contributions from experts at the World Bank, the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, the USDA, and the European Commission, the research developed throughout the chapters of this book is based on current methodologies that can be used to analyze price volatility and provide directions for understanding this volatility and the development of new agricultural policies. The book highlights the challenges facing policy makers in dealing with the changing nature of agricultural commodities markets, and offers recommendations for anticipating price movements and managing their consequences. It will be a practical guide for both present and future policy-makers in deciding on potential price-stabilizing interventions, and will also serve as a useful resource for researchers and students in agricultural economics.

"The conference was organized by the three editors of this book and took place on August 15-16, 2012 in Seattle."--Preface.

This book provides fresh insights into concepts, methods and new research findings on the causes of excessive food price volatility. It also discusses the implications for food security and policy responses to mitigate excessive volatility. The approaches applied by the contributors range from on-the-ground surveys, to panel econometrics and innovative high-frequency time series analysis as well as computational economics methods. It offers policy analysts and decision-makers guidance on dealing with extreme volatility.

This book argues that the viability of many observed market and non-market interventions in agricultural products worldwide depends considerably on the underlying behaviour of the relevant commodity markets. Many of these policies have had distortive impacts, resulting in much discussion and controversy in the context of the World Trade Organization (WTO) Doha Round of trade negotiations.

Since the financial and food price crises of 2007, market instability has been a topic of major concern to agricultural economists and policy professionals. This volume provides an overview of the key issues surrounding food prices volatility, focusing primarily on drivers, long-term implications of volatility and its impacts on food chains and consumers. The book explores which factors and drivers are volatility-increasing and which others are price level-increasing, and whether these two distinctive effects can be identified and measured. It considers the extent to which increasing instability affects agents in the value chain, as well as the actual impacts on the most vulnerable households in the EU and in selected developing countries. It also analyses which policies are more effective to avert and mitigate the effects of instability. Developed from the work of the European-based ULYSSES project, the book synthesises the most recent literature on the topic and presents the views of practitioners, businesses, NGOs and farmers' organizations. It draws policy responses and recommendations for policy makers at both European and on international levels.

The price of food has become very volatile in recent years for a variety of reasons, including a strengthened connection between the prices of agricultural commodities and other commodities such as oil and metals, more volatile production due to more frequent droughts and floods, and a rising demand for biofuels. Understanding the determinants of agricultural commodity prices and the connections between prices has become a high priority for academics and applied economists who are interested in agricultural marketing and trade, policy analysis and international rural development. This book builds on the various theories of commodity price relationships in competitive markets over space, time and form. It also builds on the various theories of commodity price relationships in markets that are non-competitive because processing firms exploit market power, private information distorts commodity bidding, and bargaining is required to establish prices when the marketing transaction involves a single seller and buyer. Each chapter features a spreadsheet model to analyze a particular real-world case study or plausible scenario, and issues considered include: the reasons for commodity price differences across regions the connection between the release of information and the rapid adjustment in a network of commodity prices the specific linkage between energy and food prices bidding strategies by large exporters who compete in import tenders The simulation results that are obtained from the spreadsheet models reveal many important features of commodity prices. The models are also well suited for additional "what if" analysis such as examining how the pattern of trade in agricultural commodities may change if shipping becomes more expensive because of substantial increase in the world price of oil. Model building and the analysis of the simulation results is a highly effective way to develop critical thinking skills and to view agricultural commodity prices in a rigorous and unique way. This is an ideal resource for economics students looking to gain develop skills in the areas of Agricultural Marketing, Commodity Price Analysis, Models of Commodity Markets, Quantitative Methods and Commodity Futures Markets.