Previous tests for convexity in the Phillips curve have been biased because researchers have employed filtering techniques for the NAIRU that have been fundamentally inconsistent with the existence of convexity. This paper places linear and nonlinear models of the Phillips curve on an equal statistical footing by estimating model-consistent measures of the NAIRU. After imposing plausible restrictions on the variability in the NAIRU we find that the nonlinear model fits the data best. The implications for the macroeconomic policy debate is that policymakers that are unsuccessful in stabilizing the business cycle will induce a higher natural rate of unemployment.

The 2007–2008 financial crisis exposed the shortcomings of mainstream economic theory with economists unprepared to deal with it. In the face of this, a major rethinking of economics seems necessary and in presenting alternative approaches to economic theory, this book contributes to the rebuilding of the discipline. This volume brings together contributions from different perspectives and theoretical approaches that address the challenge of updating the economic theory corpus and seek to recover prestige for this discipline after the failure of neoclassical economics. It addresses a range of topics, including the complexity approach to economics, category theory, the Post-Keynesian approach to micro and macroeconomics, financialisation, multidimensional analysis and ecological economics. The book is aimed at economics scholars, researchers, academics and practitioners, as well as upper undergraduates and graduates in this area of knowledge. It may also be of interest for people interested in methodological issues in economics and the relationship between economic theory and the real world.

Most empirical work on the U.S. Phillips curve has had a strong tendency to impose global linearity on the data. The basic objective of this paper is to reconsider the issue of nonlinearity and to underscore its importance for policymaking. After briefly reviewing the history of the Phillips curve and the basis for convexity, we derive it explicitly using standard models of wage and price determination. We provide some empirical estimates of Phillips curves and Phillips lines for the United States and use some illustrative simulations to contrast the policy implications of the two models.

This book presents a clear exposition of what constitutes asymmetry in economics. It provides an empirical application of these ideas in the case of the EU. In particular, it shows how important asymmetry is for the appropriate design of policy in the Euro Area.

The Chilean pension reform of 1981, a shift from cm unfunded to a funded scheme, is considered to have contributed to this country’s excellent economic performance. Positive growth effects allow, in principle, a Pareto-improving shift in pension financing. This paper highlights the theoretical underpinnings of the reform and presents empirical data and preliminary econometric testing of the conjectured reform effects on financial market developments, as well as the impact on total factor productivity. capital formation, and private saving. The empirical evidence is consistent with most but not all claims. In particular, the direct impact of the reform on saving was low, and initially even negative.

We study the global inflation surge during the pandemic recovery and the implications for aggregate and sectoral Phillips curves. We provide evidence that Phillips curves shifted up and steepened across advanced economies, and that differences in the inflation response across sectors imply the relative price of goods has been pro-cyclical this time around rather than a-cyclical as during previous cycles. We show analytically that these three features emerge endogenously in a two-sector new-Keynesian model when we introduce unbalanced recoveries that run against a supply constraint in the goods sector. A calibrated exercise shows that the resulting changes to the output-inflation relation are quantitatively important and improve the model's ability to replicate the inflation surge during this period.

Econometric techniques and models are still being extensively used in the business of forecasting and policy advice. This book presents recent advances in the theory and applications of quantitative economic policy, with particular emphasis on fiscal and monetary policies in a European and global context. The volume honors Andrew Hughes Hallett, a pioneer and major scientist in quantitative economic policy analysis, whose contributors are among his friends and former students.