Sparked with wit and humor, this clever and insightful book provides clear evidence that the stock market is inefficient. In the author's view, models based on rational economic behavior cannot explain important aspects of market behavior. The book tackles important issues in today's financial market in a highly conversational and entertaining manner that will appeal to most readers. Chapter topics include: estimating expected return with the theories of modern finance, estimating portfolio risk and expected return with ad hoc factor models, payoffs to the five families, predicting future stock returns with the expected-return factor model, super stocks and stupid stocks, the international results, the topography of the stock market, the positive payoffs to cheapness and profitability, the negative payoff to risk, and the forces behind the technical payoffs to price-history. For anyone who wants to learn more about today's financial markets.

Efficient Market Theory is based largely on the concept of crowd wisdom - that a large group of people casting their collective votes in the stock market produces correct stock prices and hence an "efficient market." However, we know from experience that the stock market is not entirely efficient, and sometimes produces wildly incorrect prices. This book explores the various criteria that are required for crowd wisdom to manifest in a financial marketplace, these being: 1) incentives; 2) independence; 3) diversity of opinion; 4) decentralization; 5) knowledge; and 6) rationality. A fundamental premise of this book is that a proper understanding of crowd wisdom criteria, and the ability to detect when these criteria are lacking in the market, is a significant benefit in identifying mispriced securities. In particular, this book explores the various behavioral and psychological biases that affect market participants, what we call the "Foolishness of the Crowd." The predictability of this Foolishness, i.e., the predictability of these biases in a crowd setting such as the stock market, produces reliable offsets from crowd wisdom, i.e., stock mispricings. This book then proposes an investment framework based in part on the investor's "inefficient rationale" - his articulated understanding, based on the above crowd wisdom criteria, as to exactly why the market is mispricing a particular stock. The investment framework also utilizes the wisdom from a select value investing crowd to both identify and help confirm good investment opportunities. The investor who adheres to this investment framework essentially places the full benefit of crowd wisdom and knowledge into his corner, including both the wisdom of the crowd and predictable departures from this wisdom.

Efficiently Inefficient describes the key trading strategies used by hedge funds and demystifies the secret world of active investing. Leading financial economist Lasse Heje Pedersen combines the latest research with real-world examples and interviews with top hedge fund managers to show how certain trading strategies make money--and why they sometimes don't. Pedersen views markets as neither perfectly efficient nor completely inefficient. Rather, they are inefficient enough that money managers can be compensated for their costs through the profits of their trading strategies and efficient enough that the profits after costs do not encourage additional active investing. Understanding how to trade in this efficiently inefficient market provides a new, engaging way to learn finance. Pedersen analyzes how the market price of stocks and bonds can differ from the model price, leading to new perspectives on the relationship between trading results and finance theory. He explores several different areas in depth--fundamental tools for investment management, equity strategies, macro strategies, and arbitrage strategies--and he looks at such diverse topics as portfolio choice, risk management, equity valuation, and yield curve logic. The book's strategies are illuminated further by interviews with leading hedge fund managers: Lee Ainslie, Cliff Asness, Jim Chanos, Ken Griffin, David Harding, John Paulson, Myron Scholes, and George Soros.

A new, evolutionary explanation of markets and investor behavior Half of all Americans have money in the stock market, yet economists can’t agree on whether investors and markets are rational and efficient, as modern financial theory assumes, or irrational and inefficient, as behavioral economists believe. The debate is one of the biggest in economics, and the value or futility of investment management and financial regulation hangs on the answer. In this groundbreaking book, Andrew Lo transforms the debate with a powerful new framework in which rationality and irrationality coexist—the Adaptive Markets Hypothesis. Drawing on psychology, evolutionary biology, neuroscience, artificial intelligence, and other fields, Adaptive Markets shows that the theory of market efficiency is incomplete. When markets are unstable, investors react instinctively, creating inefficiencies for others to exploit. Lo’s new paradigm explains how financial evolution shapes behavior and markets at the speed of thought—a fact revealed by swings between stability and crisis, profit and loss, and innovation and regulation. An ambitious new answer to fundamental questions about economics and investing, Adaptive Markets is essential reading for anyone who wants to understand how markets really work.

Updated with a new chapter that draws on behavioral finance, the field that studies the psychology of investment decisions, the bestselling guide to investing evaluates the full range of financial opportunities.

Theory of incompl. markets/M. Magill, M. Quinzii. - V.1.