Features an integrated approach of statistical scenarios and simulations to aid readers in developing key intuitions needed to understand the wide ranging concepts and methods of statistics and inference Illuminating Statistical Analysis Using Scenarios and Simulations presents the basic concepts of statistics and statistical inference using the dual mechanisms of scenarios and simulations. This approach helps readers develop key intuitions and deep understandings of statistical analysis. Scenario-specific sampling simulations depict the results that would be obtained by a very large number of individuals investigating the same scenario, each with their own evidence, while graphical depictions of the simulation results present clear and direct pathways to intuitive methods for statistical inference. These intuitive methods can then be easily linked to traditional formulaic methods, and the author does not simply explain the linkages, but rather provides demonstrations throughout for a broad range of statistical phenomena. In addition, induction and deduction are repeatedly interwoven, which fosters a natural "need to know basis" for ordering the topic coverage. Examining computer simulation results is central to the discussion and provides an illustrative way to (re)discover the properties of sample statistics, the role of chance, and to (re)invent corresponding principles of statistical inference. In addition, the simulation results foreshadow the various mathematical formulas that underlie statistical analysis. In addition, this book: • Features both an intuitive and analytical perspective and includes a broad introduction to the use of Monte Carlo simulation and formulaic methods for statistical analysis • Presents straight-forward coverage of the essentials of basic statistics and ensures proper understanding of key concepts such as sampling distributions, the effects of sample size and variance on uncertainty, analysis of proportion, mean and rank differences, covariance, correlation, and regression • Introduces advanced topics such as Bayesian statistics, data mining, model cross-validation, robust regression, and resampling • Contains numerous example problems in each chapter with detailed solutions as well as an appendix that serves as a manual for constructing simulations quickly and easily using Microsoft® Office Excel® Illuminating Statistical Analysis Using Scenarios and Simulations is an ideal textbook for courses, seminars, and workshops in statistics and statistical inference and is appropriate for self-study as well. The book also serves as a thought-provoking treatise for researchers, scientists, managers, technicians, and others with a keen interest in statistical analysis. Jeffrey E. Kottemann, Ph.D., is Professor in the Perdue School at Salisbury University. Dr. Kottemann has published articles in a wide variety of academic research journals in the fields of business administration, computer science, decision sciences, economics, engineering, information systems, psychology, and public administration. He received his Ph.D. in Systems and Quantitative Methods from the University of Arizona.

Simulation is a widely used methodology in all Applied Science disciplines. This textbook focuses on this crucial phase in the overall process of applying simulation, and includes the best of both classic and modern methods of simulation experimentation. This book will be the standard reference book on the topic for both researchers and sophisticated practitioners, and it will be used as a textbook in courses or seminars focusing on this topic.

Mounting failures of replication in social and biological sciences give a new urgency to critically appraising proposed reforms. This book pulls back the cover on disagreements between experts charged with restoring integrity to science. It denies two pervasive views of the role of probability in inference: to assign degrees of belief, and to control error rates in a long run. If statistical consumers are unaware of assumptions behind rival evidence reforms, they can't scrutinize the consequences that affect them (in personalized medicine, psychology, etc.). The book sets sail with a simple tool: if little has been done to rule out flaws in inferring a claim, then it has not passed a severe test. Many methods advocated by data experts do not stand up to severe scrutiny and are in tension with successful strategies for blocking or accounting for cherry picking and selective reporting. Through a series of excursions and exhibits, the philosophy and history of inductive inference come alive. Philosophical tools are put to work to solve problems about science and pseudoscience, induction and falsification.

A new edition of this popular text on robust statistics, thoroughly updated to include new and improved methods and focus on implementation of methodology using the increasingly popular open-source software R. Classical statistics fail to cope well with outliers associated with deviations from standard distributions. Robust statistical methods take into account these deviations when estimating the parameters of parametric models, thus increasing the reliability of fitted models and associated inference. This new, second edition of Robust Statistics: Theory and Methods (with R) presents a broad coverage of the theory of robust statistics that is integrated with computing methods and applications. Updated to include important new research results of the last decade and focus on the use of the popular software package R, it features in-depth coverage of the key methodology, including regression, multivariate analysis, and time series modeling. The book is illustrated throughout by a range of examples and applications that are supported by a companion website featuring data sets and R code that allow the reader to reproduce the examples given in the book. Unlike other books on the market, Robust Statistics: Theory and Methods (with R) offers the most comprehensive, definitive, and up-to-date treatment of the subject. It features chapters on estimating location and scale; measuring robustness; linear regression with fixed and with random predictors; multivariate analysis; generalized linear models; time series; numerical algorithms; and asymptotic theory of M-estimates. Explains both the use and theoretical justification of robust methods Guides readers in selecting and using the most appropriate robust methods for their problems Features computational algorithms for the core methods Robust statistics research results of the last decade included in this 2nd edition include: fast deterministic robust regression, finite-sample robustness, robust regularized regression, robust location and scatter estimation with missing data, robust estimation with independent outliers in variables, and robust mixed linear models. Robust Statistics aims to stimulate the use of robust methods as a powerful tool to increase the reliability and accuracy of statistical modelling and data analysis. It is an ideal resource for researchers, practitioners, and graduate students in statistics, engineering, computer science, and physical and social sciences.

A Turing Award-winning computer scientist and statistician shows how understanding causality has revolutionized science and will revolutionize artificial intelligence "Correlation is not causation." This mantra, chanted by scientists for more than a century, has led to a virtual prohibition on causal talk. Today, that taboo is dead. The causal revolution, instigated by Judea Pearl and his colleagues, has cut through a century of confusion and established causality -- the study of cause and effect -- on a firm scientific basis. His work explains how we can know easy things, like whether it was rain or a sprinkler that made a sidewalk wet; and how to answer hard questions, like whether a drug cured an illness. Pearl's work enables us to know not just whether one thing causes another: it lets us explore the world that is and the worlds that could have been. It shows us the essence of human thought and key to artificial intelligence. Anyone who wants to understand either needs The Book of Why.