A guide to data collection, modeling and inference strategies for biological survey data using Bayesian and classical statistical methods. This book describes a general and flexible framework for modeling and inference in ecological systems based on hierarchical models, with a strict focus on the use of probability models and parametric inference. Hierarchical models represent a paradigm shift in the application of statistics to ecological inference problems because they combine explicit models of ecological system structure or dynamics with models of how ecological systems are observed. The principles of hierarchical modeling are developed and applied to problems in population, metapopulation, community, and metacommunity systems. The book provides the first synthetic treatment of many recent methodological advances in ecological modeling and unifies disparate methods and procedures. The authors apply principles of hierarchical modeling to ecological problems, including * occurrence or occupancy models for estimating species distribution * abundance models based on many sampling protocols, including distance sampling * capture-recapture models with individual effects * spatial capture-recapture models based on camera trapping and related methods * population and metapopulation dynamic models * models of biodiversity, community structure and dynamics Wide variety of examples involving many taxa (birds, amphibians, mammals, insects, plants) Development of classical, likelihood-based procedures for inference, as well as Bayesian methods of analysis Detailed explanations describing the implementation of hierarchical models using freely available software such as R and WinBUGS Computing support in technical appendices in an online companion web site

Applied Hierarchical Modeling in Ecology: Analysis of Distribution, Abundance and Species Richness in R and BUGS, Volume Two: Dynamic and Advanced Models provides a synthesis of the state-of-the-art in hierarchical models for plant and animal distribution, also focusing on the complex and more advanced models currently available. The book explains all procedures in the context of hierarchical models that represent a unified approach to ecological research, thus taking the reader from design, through data collection, and into analyses using a very powerful way of synthesizing data. Makes ecological modeling accessible to people who are struggling to use complex or advanced modeling programs Synthesizes current ecological models and explains how they are inter-connected Contains numerous examples throughout the book, walking the reading through scenarios with both real and simulated data Provides an ideal resource for ecologists working in R software and in BUGS software for more flexible Bayesian analyses

Applied Hierarchical Modeling in Ecology: Distribution, Abundance, Species Richness offers a new synthesis of the state-of-the-art of hierarchical models for plant and animal distribution, abundance, and community characteristics such as species richness using data collected in metapopulation designs. These types of data are extremely widespread in ecology and its applications in such areas as biodiversity monitoring and fisheries and wildlife management. This first volume explains static models/procedures in the context of hierarchical models that collectively represent a unified approach to ecological research, taking the reader from design, through data collection, and into analyses using a very powerful class of models. Applied Hierarchical Modeling in Ecology, Volume 1 serves as an indispensable manual for practicing field biologists, and as a graduate-level text for students in ecology, conservation biology, fisheries/wildlife management, and related fields. Provides a synthesis of important classes of models about distribution, abundance, and species richness while accommodating imperfect detection Presents models and methods for identifying unmarked individuals and species Written in a step-by-step approach accessible to non-statisticians and provides fully worked examples that serve as a template for readers' analyses Includes companion website containing data sets, code, solutions to exercises, and further information

Making statistical modeling and inference more accessible to ecologists and related scientists, Introduction to Hierarchical Bayesian Modeling for Ecological Data gives readers a flexible and effective framework to learn about complex ecological processes from various sources of data. It also helps readers get started on building their own statistical models. The text begins with simple models that progressively become more complex and realistic through explanatory covariates and intermediate hidden states variables. When fitting the models to data, the authors gradually present the concepts and techniques of the Bayesian paradigm from a practical point of view using real case studies. They emphasize how hierarchical Bayesian modeling supports multidimensional models involving complex interactions between parameters and latent variables. Data sets, exercises, and R and WinBUGS codes are available on the authors’ website. This book shows how Bayesian statistical modeling provides an intuitive way to organize data, test ideas, investigate competing hypotheses, and assess degrees of confidence of predictions. It also illustrates how conditional reasoning can dismantle a complex reality into more understandable pieces. As conditional reasoning is intimately linked with Bayesian thinking, considering hierarchical models within the Bayesian setting offers a unified and coherent framework for modeling, estimation, and prediction.

Bayesian modeling has become an indispensable tool for ecological research because it is uniquely suited to deal with complexity in a statistically coherent way. This textbook provides a comprehensive and accessible introduction to the latest Bayesian methods—in language ecologists can understand. Unlike other books on the subject, this one emphasizes the principles behind the computations, giving ecologists a big-picture understanding of how to implement this powerful statistical approach. Bayesian Models is an essential primer for non-statisticians. It begins with a definition of probability and develops a step-by-step sequence of connected ideas, including basic distribution theory, network diagrams, hierarchical models, Markov chain Monte Carlo, and inference from single and multiple models. This unique book places less emphasis on computer coding, favoring instead a concise presentation of the mathematical statistics needed to understand how and why Bayesian analysis works. It also explains how to write out properly formulated hierarchical Bayesian models and use them in computing, research papers, and proposals. This primer enables ecologists to understand the statistical principles behind Bayesian modeling and apply them to research, teaching, policy, and management. Presents the mathematical and statistical foundations of Bayesian modeling in language accessible to non-statisticians Covers basic distribution theory, network diagrams, hierarchical models, Markov chain Monte Carlo, and more Deemphasizes computer coding in favor of basic principles Explains how to write out properly factored statistical expressions representing Bayesian models

Among the many uses of hierarchical modeling, their application to the statistical analysis of spatial and spatio-temporal data from areas such as epidemiology And environmental science has proven particularly fruitful. Yet to date, the few books that address the subject have been either too narrowly focused on specific aspects of spatial analysis,

Bayesian Data Analysis in Ecology Using Linear Models with R, BUGS, and STAN examines the Bayesian and frequentist methods of conducting data analyses. The book provides the theoretical background in an easy-to-understand approach, encouraging readers to examine the processes that generated their data. Including discussions of model selection, model checking, and multi-model inference, the book also uses effect plots that allow a natural interpretation of data. Bayesian Data Analysis in Ecology Using Linear Models with R, BUGS, and STAN introduces Bayesian software, using R for the simple modes, and flexible Bayesian software (BUGS and Stan) for the more complicated ones. Guiding the ready from easy toward more complex (real) data analyses ina step-by-step manner, the book presents problems and solutions—including all R codes—that are most often applicable to other data and questions, making it an invaluable resource for analyzing a variety of data types. Introduces Bayesian data analysis, allowing users to obtain uncertainty measurements easily for any derived parameter of interest Written in a step-by-step approach that allows for eased understanding by non-statisticians Includes a companion website containing R-code to help users conduct Bayesian data analyses on their own data All example data as well as additional functions are provided in the R-package blmeco