The core of this paper is a general set of variational principles for the problems of computing marginal probabilities and modes, applicable to multivariate statistical models in the exponential family.

A general framework for constructing and using probabilistic models of complex systems that would enable a computer to use available information for making decisions. Most tasks require a person or an automated system to reason—to reach conclusions based on available information. The framework of probabilistic graphical models, presented in this book, provides a general approach for this task. The approach is model-based, allowing interpretable models to be constructed and then manipulated by reasoning algorithms. These models can also be learned automatically from data, allowing the approach to be used in cases where manually constructing a model is difficult or even impossible. Because uncertainty is an inescapable aspect of most real-world applications, the book focuses on probabilistic models, which make the uncertainty explicit and provide models that are more faithful to reality. Probabilistic Graphical Models discusses a variety of models, spanning Bayesian networks, undirected Markov networks, discrete and continuous models, and extensions to deal with dynamical systems and relational data. For each class of models, the text describes the three fundamental cornerstones: representation, inference, and learning, presenting both basic concepts and advanced techniques. Finally, the book considers the use of the proposed framework for causal reasoning and decision making under uncertainty. The main text in each chapter provides the detailed technical development of the key ideas. Most chapters also include boxes with additional material: skill boxes, which describe techniques; case study boxes, which discuss empirical cases related to the approach described in the text, including applications in computer vision, robotics, natural language understanding, and computational biology; and concept boxes, which present significant concepts drawn from the material in the chapter. Instructors (and readers) can group chapters in various combinations, from core topics to more technically advanced material, to suit their particular needs.

A practical introduction perfect for final-year undergraduate and graduate students without a solid background in linear algebra and calculus.

In the past decade, a number of different research communities within the computational sciences have studied learning in networks, starting from a number of different points of view. There has been substantial progress in these different communities and surprising convergence has developed between the formalisms. The awareness of this convergence and the growing interest of researchers in understanding the essential unity of the subject underlies the current volume. Two research communities which have used graphical or network formalisms to particular advantage are the belief network community and the neural network community. Belief networks arose within computer science and statistics and were developed with an emphasis on prior knowledge and exact probabilistic calculations. Neural networks arose within electrical engineering, physics and neuroscience and have emphasised pattern recognition and systems modelling problems. This volume draws together researchers from these two communities and presents both kinds of networks as instances of a general unified graphical formalism. The book focuses on probabilistic methods for learning and inference in graphical models, algorithm analysis and design, theory and applications. Exact methods, sampling methods and variational methods are discussed in detail. Audience: A wide cross-section of computationally oriented researchers, including computer scientists, statisticians, electrical engineers, physicists and neuroscientists.

The Wiley Paperback Series makes valuable content more accessible to a new generation of statisticians, mathematicians and scientists. Graphical models--a subset of log-linear models--reveal the interrelationships between multiple variables and features of the underlying conditional independence. This introduction to the use of graphical models in the description and modeling of multivariate systems covers conditional independence, several types of independence graphs, Gaussian models, issues in model selection, regression and decomposition. Many numerical examples and exercises with solutions are included. This book is aimed at students who require a course on applied multivariate statistics unified by the concept of conditional independence and researchers concerned with applying graphical modelling techniques.

This book is a readable, digestible introduction to exponential families, encompassing statistical models based on the most useful distributions in statistical theory, including the normal, gamma, binomial, Poisson, and negative binomial. Strongly motivated by applications, it presents the essential theory and then demonstrates the theory's practical potential by connecting it with developments in areas like item response analysis, social network models, conditional independence and latent variable structures, and point process models. Extensions to incomplete data models and generalized linear models are also included. In addition, the author gives a concise account of the philosophy of Per Martin-Löf in order to connect statistical modelling with ideas in statistical physics, including Boltzmann's law. Written for graduate students and researchers with a background in basic statistical inference, the book includes a vast set of examples demonstrating models for applications and exercises embedded within the text as well as at the ends of chapters.

Graph-structured data is ubiquitous throughout the natural and social sciences, from telecommunication networks to quantum chemistry. Building relational inductive biases into deep learning architectures is crucial for creating systems that can learn, reason, and generalize from this kind of data. Recent years have seen a surge in research on graph representation learning, including techniques for deep graph embeddings, generalizations of convolutional neural networks to graph-structured data, and neural message-passing approaches inspired by belief propagation. These advances in graph representation learning have led to new state-of-the-art results in numerous domains, including chemical synthesis, 3D vision, recommender systems, question answering, and social network analysis. This book provides a synthesis and overview of graph representation learning. It begins with a discussion of the goals of graph representation learning as well as key methodological foundations in graph theory and network analysis. Following this, the book introduces and reviews methods for learning node embeddings, including random-walk-based methods and applications to knowledge graphs. It then provides a technical synthesis and introduction to the highly successful graph neural network (GNN) formalism, which has become a dominant and fast-growing paradigm for deep learning with graph data. The book concludes with a synthesis of recent advancements in deep generative models for graphs—a nascent but quickly growing subset of graph representation learning.