SCOTT (copy 1): from the John Holmes Library collection.

"The ongoing COVID-19 pandemic marks the most significant, singular global disruption since World War II, with health, economic, political, and security implications that will ripple for years to come." -Global Trends 2040 (2021) Global Trends 2040-A More Contested World (2021), released by the US National Intelligence Council, is the latest report in its series of reports starting in 1997 about megatrends and the world's future. This report, strongly influenced by the COVID-19 pandemic, paints a bleak picture of the future and describes a contested, fragmented and turbulent world. It specifically discusses the four main trends that will shape tomorrow's world: - Demographics-by 2040, 1.4 billion people will be added mostly in Africa and South Asia. - Economics-increased government debt and concentrated economic power will escalate problems for the poor and middleclass. - Climate-a hotter world will increase water, food, and health insecurity. - Technology-the emergence of new technologies could both solve and cause problems for human life. Students of trends, policymakers, entrepreneurs, academics, journalists and anyone eager for a glimpse into the next decades, will find this report, with colored graphs, essential reading.

It is a cliché to say that we live in a globalized world in which investment flows, communications and the operations of multinationals from all parts of the world have changed the character of the international business environment. But the easy concept of globalization poses as many questions as it answers and it is the purpose of this book to address these challenges. In Governments, Globalization, and International Business a prestigious group of international scholars explore in detail the consequences of globalization defined as the deepening structural interdependence of the world economy. In Part 1 John Dunning, Richard Lipsey, Susan Strange and Stephen Kobrin analyse these changes from different disciplinary perspectives and intellectual backgrounds. The basic question they address is what are the consequences of globalization on the nature, form, and level of domestic economic activity?. In doing so, they also consider the increasing mobility of knowledge and information, the role of international corporations, and the sovereignty of the nation state in the modern borderless world. In Part 2 the different experiences and policies of a number of economies are assessed in a series of country studies, These include the G7 countries as well as the developing East Asian economies, Latin America and smaller developed countries. In the final part John Stopford and Edward Graham stand back and look at the changing role of National and Supranational governance. In doing so they underscore a fundamental tenet of the volume, that globalization requires national governments to re-evaluate various factors of their systemic governance. Yet despite apparently convergent trends they argue there are no universal prescriptions for the way governments should respond to globalization, and the policy challenge is a more complex one than merely more or less government.

Over the past hundred years, the global motto has been “more, more, more” in terms of growth – of population, of the built environment, of human and financial capital, and of all manner of worldly goods. This was the reality as the world population boomed during the 1960s and 1970s. But reality is changing in front of our eyes. Growth is already slowing down, and according to the most sophisticated demographers, the earth’s population will begin to decline not hundreds of years from now, but within the lifetimes of many of the people now living on the planet. In Smaller Cities in a Shrinking World, urban policy expert Alan Mallach seeks to understand how declining population and economic growth, coupled with the other forces that will influence their fates, particularly climate change, will affect the world’s cities over the coming decades. What will it mean to have a world full of shrinking cities? Does it mean that they are doomed to decline in more ways than simply population numbers, or can we uncouple population decline from economic decay, abandoned buildings and impoverishment? Mallach has spent much of the last thirty or more years working in, looking at, thinking, and writing about shrinking cities—from Trenton, New Jersey, where he was director of housing and economic development, to other American cities like Detroit, Flint, and St. Louis, and from there to cities in Japan and Central and Eastern Europe. He has woven together his experience, research, and analysis in this fascinating, realistic yet hopeful look at how smaller, shrinking cities can thrive, despite the daunting challenges they face.