Exploring Probability in School provides a new perspective into research on the teaching and learning of probability. It creates this perspective by recognizing and analysing the special challenges faced by teachers and learners in contemporary classrooms where probability has recently become a mainstream part of the curriculum from early childhood through high school. The authors of the book discuss the nature of probability, look at the meaning of probabilistic literacy, and examine student access to powerful ideas in probability during the elementary, middle, and high school years. Moreover, they assemble and analyse research-based pedagogical knowledge for teachers that can enhance the learning of probability throughout these school years. With the book’s rich application of probability research to classroom practice, it will not only be essential reading for researchers and graduate students involved in probability education; it will also capture the interest of educational policy makers, curriculum personnel, teacher educators, and teachers.

Funded by the National Science Foundation and written by members of the American Statistical Association and the National Council of Teachers of Mathematics, this series introduces and teaches important topics in a secondary math curriculum.

Statistics and probability are fascinating fields, tightly interwoven with the context of the problems which have to be modelled. The authors demonstrate how investigations and experiments provide promising teaching strategies to help high-school students acquire statistical and probabilistic literacy. In the first chapter the authors put into practice the following educational principles, reflecting their views of how these subjects should be taught: a focus on the most relevant ideas and postpone extensions to later stages; illustrating the complementary/dual nature of statistical and probabilistic reasoning; utilising the potential of technology and show its limits; and reflecting on the different levels of formalisation to meet the wide variety of students’ previous knowledge, abilities, and learning types. The remaining chapters deal with exploratory data analysis, modelling information by probabilities, exploring and modelling association, and with sampling and inference. Throughout the book, a modelling view of the concepts guides the presentation. In each chapter, the development of a cluster of fundamental ideas is centred around a statistical study or a real-world problem that leads to statistical questions requiring data in order to be answered. The concepts developed are designed to lead to meaningful solutions rather than remain abstract entities. For each cluster of ideas, the authors review the relevant research on misconceptions and synthesise the results of research in order to support teaching of statistics and probability in high school. What makes this book unique is its rich source of worked-through tasks and its focus on the interrelations between teaching and empirical research on understanding statistics and probability.

This book has been written to fIll a substantial gap in the current literature in mathemat ical education. Throughout the world, school mathematical curricula have incorporated probability and statistics as new topics. There have been many research papers written on specifIc aspects of teaching, presenting novel and unusual approaches to introducing ideas in the classroom; however, there has been no book giving an overview. Here we have decided to focus on probability, making reference to inferential statistics where appropriate; we have deliberately avoided descriptive statistics as it is a separate area and would have made ideas less coherent and the book excessively long. A general lead has been taken from the fIrst book in this series written by the man who, probably more than everyone else, has established mathematical education as an aca demic discipline. However, in his exposition of didactical phenomenology, Freudenthal does not analyze probability. Thus, in this book, we show how probability is able to organize the world of chance and idealized chance phenomena based on its development and applications. In preparing these chapters we and our co-authors have reflected on our own acquisition of probabilistic ideas, analyzed textbooks, and observed and reflect ed upon the learning processes involved when children and adults struggle to acquire the relevant concepts.

This book summarizes the vast amount of research related to teaching and learning probability that has been conducted for more than 50 years in a variety of disciplines. It begins with a synthesis of the most important probability interpretations throughout history: intuitive, classical, frequentist, subjective, logical propensity and axiomatic views. It discusses their possible applications, philosophical problems, as well as their potential and the level of interest they enjoy at different educational levels. Next, the book describes the main features of probabilistic thinking and reasoning, including the contrast to classical logic, probability language features, the role of intuitions, as well as paradoxes and the relevance of modeling. It presents an analysis of the differences between conditioning and causation, the variability expression in data as a sum of random and causal variations, as well as those of probabilistic versus statistical thinking. This is followed by an analysis of probability’s role and main presence in school curricula and an outline of the central expectations in recent curricular guidelines at the primary, secondary and high school level in several countries. This book classifies and discusses in detail the three different research periods on students’ and people’s intuitions and difficulties concerning probability: early research focused on cognitive development, a period of heuristics and biases programs, and the current period marked by a multitude of foci, approaches and theoretical frameworks.

Do you avoid teaching probability and statistics because the subjects seem confusing and complex? Are you less than sure about your knowledge of the topics? Let Chances Are . . . take you and your students on a fun and exciting mathematical journey none of you will ever forget! Filled with easy-to-understand explanations and creative activities, this book offers teachers a simple method for teaching probability and statistics in an enjoyable way. This book can serve as an introduction for any beginner, from gifted and advanced students in upper elementary school, to high school students needing enrichment or preparation for Advanced Placement Statistics or future college courses. From helping to win a card game, to making life-or-death medical decisions, the uses of probability and statistics are virtually endless. For teachers of elementary students, the book offers simple, hands-on lessons and activities about probability and basic statistics. For teachers of older students, advanced statistical concepts are discussed and activities are provided. Reviewers have found the book's level to be appropriate for a wide range of ages, from fourth graders to post-secondary students.

These titles focus on the approaches that can be taken in the classroom to develop skills and a conceptual understanding of specific mathematical concepts.