Table of contents

This book describes the new generation of discrete choice methods, focusing on the many advances that are made possible by simulation. Researchers use these statistical methods to examine the choices that consumers, households, firms, and other agents make. Each of the major models is covered: logit, generalized extreme value, or GEV (including nested and cross-nested logits), probit, and mixed logit, plus a variety of specifications that build on these basics. Simulation-assisted estimation procedures are investigated and compared, including maximum stimulated likelihood, method of simulated moments, and method of simulated scores. Procedures for drawing from densities are described, including variance reduction techniques such as anithetics and Halton draws. Recent advances in Bayesian procedures are explored, including the use of the Metropolis-Hastings algorithm and its variant Gibbs sampling. The second edition adds chapters on endogeneity and expectation-maximization (EM) algorithms. No other book incorporates all these fields, which have arisen in the past 25 years. The procedures are applicable in many fields, including energy, transportation, environmental studies, health, labor, and marketing.

Simulation methods are revolutionizing the practice of applied economic analysis. In this book, leading researchers from around the world discuss interpretation issues, similarities and differences across alternative models, and propose practical solutions for the choice of the model and programming. Case studies show the practical use and the results brought forth by the different methods.

Discrete Choice Analysis presents these results in such a way that they are fully accessible to the range of students and professionals who are involved in modelling demand and consumer behavior in general or specifically in transportation - whether from the point of view of the design of transit systems, urban and transport economics, public policy, operations research, or systems management and planning. The methods of discrete choice analysis and their applications in the modelling of transportation systems constitute a comparatively new field that has largely evolved over the past 15 years. Since its inception, however, the field has developed rapidly, and this is the first text and reference work to cover the material systematically, bringing together the scattered and often inaccessible results for graduate students and professionals. Discrete Choice Analysis presents these results in such a way that they are fully accessible to the range of students and professionals who are involved in modelling demand and consumer behavior in general or specifically in transportation - whether from the point of view of the design of transit systems, urban and transport economics, public policy, operations research, or systems management and planning. The introductory chapter presents the background of discrete choice analysis and context of transportation demand forecasting. Subsequent chapters cover, among other topics, the theories of individual choice behavior, binary and multinomial choice models, aggregate forecasting techniques, estimation methods, tests used in the process of model development, sampling theory, the nested-logit model, and systems of models. Discrete Choice Analysis is ninth in the MIT Press Series in Transportation Studies, edited by Marvin Manheim.

"This is an excellent and well-written text on discrete event simulation with a focus on applications in Operations Research. There is substantial attention to programming, output analysis, pseudo-random number generation and modelling and these sections are quite thorough. Methods are provided for generating pseudo-random numbers (including combining such streams) and for generating random numbers from most standard statistical distributions." --ISI Short Book Reviews, 22:2, August 2002

This substantial volume has two principal objectives. First it provides an overview of the statistical foundations of Simulation-based inference. This includes the summary and synthesis of the many concepts and results extant in the theoretical literature, the different classes of problems and estimators, the asymptotic properties of these estimators, as well as descriptions of the different simulators in use. Second, the volume provides empirical and operational examples of SBI methods. Often what is missing, even in existing applied papers, are operational issues. Which simulator works best for which problem and why? This volume will explicitly address the important numerical and computational issues in SBI which are not covered comprehensively in the existing literature. Examples of such issues are: comparisons with existing tractable methods, number of replications needed for robust results, choice of instruments, simulation noise and bias as well as efficiency loss in practice.

Every one relies on some kind of transportation system nearly every day. Go ing to work, shopping, dropping children at school and many other cultural or social activities imply leaving home, and using some form of transportation, which we expect tobe eflicient and reliable. Of course, efliciency and reliabil ity do not occur by chance, but require careful and often relatively complex planning by transportation system managers, both in the public and private sectors. It has long been recognized that mathematics, and, more specifically, op erations research is an important tool of this planning process. However, the range of skills required to cover both fields, even partially, is very large, and the opportunities to gather people with this very diverse expertise are too few. The organization of the NATO Advanced Studies Institute on "Opera tions Research and Decision Aid Methodologies in Traflic and Transportation Management" in March 1997 in Balatonfüred, Hungary, was therefore more than welcome and the group of people that gathered for a very studious two weeks on the shores of the beautiful lake Balaton did really enjoy the truly multidisciplinary and high scientific level of the meeting. The purpose of the present volume is to report, in a chronological order, the various questions that were considered by the lecturers and the' students at the institute. After a general introduction to the topic, the first week focused on issues related to traflic modeling, mostly in an urban context.