This book demystifies the models we use to simulate present and future climates, allowing readers to better understand how to use climate model results. In order to predict the future trajectory of the Earth’s climate, climate-system simulation models are necessary. When and how do we trust climate model predictions? The book offers a framework for answering this question. It provides readers with a basic primer on climate and climate change, and offers non-technical explanations for how climate models are constructed, why they are uncertain, and what level of confidence we should place in them. It presents current results and the key uncertainties concerning them. Uncertainty is not a weakness but understanding uncertainty is a strength and a key part of using any model, including climate models. Case studies of how climate model output has been used and how it might be used in the future are provided. The ultimate goal of this book is to promote a better understanding of the structure and uncertainties of climate models among users, including scientists, engineers and policymakers.

This book is a distillation of the First Annual International Technical Workshop on Climate Risk held in 2016 in Wells, Maine, USA. It is organized into four major themes, namely: the Montreal Protocol; industry and infrastructure concerns; sustainability and strategic planning; and climate science and informing business risk. The volume’s premise is that, long before the 2015 Paris Agreement, many professionals from diverse fields were working to solve the problems of human-caused climate change. The 1987 Montreal Protocol is now in support of a key emission reduction goal of the Agreement. It was time for the seasoned leaders who implement the Protocol, the world’s most successful treaty for atmospheric protection, to share their knowledge and wisdom with the next generation before that expertise was lost. The purpose of bringing these communities of practice together is to leverage the many successes to date to inspire future innovations through ‘lessons learned’; ensure that new or updated regulations are timely communicated and economically executed; and identify opportunities for related sustainable development.

Tackling one of the most controversial subjects of our time, one of the world's foremost environmental and petroleum engineers explores the potential causes and ramifications of global climate change. For too many years climate change (also referred to as global warming) has been assigned predominantly to the emissions of carbon dioxide through the combustion of fossil fuels. It must never be forgotten or ignored, however, that the Earth has been constantly changing since its formation and has gone through different eras like glaciations, among others. These changes need thousands of years to be made visible, and are likely still continuing, given the increase in the average temperature of the Earth since the pre-industrial period (provided that the measurements of past climatic temperatures are accurate and beyond reproach). It follows that the warming trend that has occurred over the past 100 years is very likely to have some origins in natural events as well as in human activity. The precise contributions of natural effects and anthropogenic effects on the climate are not known, but it is accurate to conclude that many factors continue to influence climate. Whether or not human activities have become a dominant force in the changing climate and are responsible for most of the warming observed is still open to question. When studying the climate system of the Earth, an area of common confusion is whether climate scientists agree or disagree as to whether or not climate change is happening, or if it is happening, whether or not humans are the primary cause. There are a variety of reasons for this, but a majority of scientists who study climate and publish in peer-reviewed journals agree that human activity is causing the warming of the Earth. The purpose of this book is to weigh all of these various data points and, in a scientific and unemotional way, arrive at likely conclusions regarding global climate change. Whether human activity is the main driver behind our current changes in climate, one thing is certain: Climate change is happening, and we all need to make informed, rather than emotional, decisions.

This edited collection of works by leading climate scientists and philosophers introduces readers to issues in the foundations, evaluation, confirmation, and application of climate models. It engages with important topics directly affecting public policy, including the role of doubt, the use of satellite data, and the robustness of models. Climate Modelling provides an early and significant contribution to the burgeoning Philosophy of Climate Science field that will help to shape our understanding of these topics in both philosophy and the wider scientific context. It offers insight into the reasons we should believe what climate models say about the world but addresses the issues that inform how reliable and well-confirmed these models are. This book will be of interest to students of climate science, philosophy of science, and of particular relevance to policy makers who depend on the models that forecast future states of the climate and ocean in order to make public policy decisions.

This book presents the result of an innovative challenge, to create a systematic literature overview driven by machine-generated content. Questions and related keywords were prepared for the machine to query, discover, collate and structure by Artificial Intelligence (AI) clustering. The AI-based approach seemed especially suitable to provide an innovative perspective as the topics are indeed both complex, interdisciplinary and multidisciplinary, for example, climate, planetary and evolution sciences. Springer Nature has published much on these topics in its journals over the years, so the challenge was for the machine to identify the most relevant content and present it in a structured way that the reader would find useful. The automatically generated literature summaries in this book are intended as a springboard to further discoverability. They are particularly useful to readers with limited time, looking to learn more about the subject quickly and especially if they are new to the topics. Springer Nature seeks to support anyone who needs a fast and effective start in their content discovery journey, from the undergraduate student exploring interdisciplinary content, to Master- or PhD-thesis developing research questions, to the practitioner seeking support materials, this book can serve as an inspiration, to name a few examples. It is important to us as a publisher to make the advances in technology easily accessible to our authors and find new ways of AI-based author services that allow human-machine interaction to generate readable, usable, collated, research content.

The U.S. government has pending before it the ratification of the Kyoto Protocol, an agreement to limit the emissions of greenhouse gases (GHGs), which is largely based on the threat GHGs pose to the global climate. Such an agreement would have significant economic and national security implications, and therefore any national policy decisions regarding this issue should rely in part on the best possible suite of scenarios from climate models. The U.S. climate modeling research community is a world leader in intermediate and smaller climate modeling efforts-research that has been instrumental in improving the understanding of specific components of the climate system. Somewhat in contrast, the United States has been less prominent in producing high-end climate modeling results, which have been featured in recent international assessments of the impacts of climate change. The fact that U.S. contributions of these state-of-the-art results have been relatively sparse has prompted a number of prominent climate researchers to question the current organization and support of climate modeling research in the United States, and has led ultimately to this report.

Presents unique perspectives from leading researchers on the development and application of atmospheric general circulation models. It is a core reference for academic researchers and professionals involved in atmospheric physics, meteorology and climate science, and a resource for graduate-level courses in climate modeling and numerical weather prediction.