China is historically famous for its high demographic dividend and its huge working population, and this has driven tremendous economic growth over the past few decades. However, that population has begun to shrink and the Lewis turning point whereby surplus rural population has been absorbed into manufacturing is also approaching, leading to great change in the Chinese labor market. Will this negatively affect China’s economic growth? Can the "Middle-Income Trap" be avoided? What reforms should be made on the labor supply side? This book tackles these key questions. This book is a collection of 14 papers presenting the author’s observations, analysis, and opinions of China’s long-term economic development from the demographic perspective, while analysing real economic problems from the past and including policy recommendations. It provides a critical reference for scholars and students interested in Chinese economic development and demographic perspectives on economic development.

This book is a collection of 14 papers presenting the author's observations, analysis, and opinions of China's long-term economic development from the demographic perspective.

China has grown rapidly since the reform initiation of the 1970s. China’s Economic Growth Prospects narrates the contribution of demographic transition to recent economic growth in China, and provides suggestions for ways in which it can sustain growth over the next few decades. The expert author provides reasons for the economic slowdown since the second decade of the twenty-first century; explores the challenges facing China’s long-term sustainability of growth with the disappearance of demographic dividend; and proposes policy suggestions. He concludes that, in order to avoid the middle-income trap, economic growth in China must transform from an inputs-driven pattern, to a productivity-driven pattern. Academics, researchers and students of economics and business, particularly those specialising in China, will find this book to be a useful resource. Investment bankers, journalists, politicians and policy makers will find the discussions of past experience and the future potential of the Chinese economy to be of interest.

This book assesses current developments in China’s demography, and discusses the changes which should be implemented to bring policy into line with the current demographic situation. It argues that population planning, which was introduced in the early years of the People’s Republic alongside economic planning, including "the one child policy", is no longer appropriate. It considers the results of the 2010 census, which showed the very significant shifts that are occurring , including a declining rate of population growth, ongoing growth of the number of people in "the floating population", an increasingly imbalanced sex ratio among newborn children, and ongoing ageing of the population. Besides discussing population planning policy, the book also examines how policies in the fields of education, health, gender relations, child development in rural areas, and polices for the elderly and families should be adjusted to accommodate demographic developments.

This book presents empirical observations and theoretical thinking of the fundamental changes in the Chinese economy. It starts with a warning of the arrival of the Lewis Turning Point, which is empirically proven by disappearance of surplus labor force and a rapid increase in wages of unskilled workers. It further reveals that China''s rapid population-aging trend is diminishing the demographic dividend that has kept China''s economic growth rate high. Subsequently, it touches upon employment challenges that arise after reaching the Lewis Turning Point, further propelling urbanization, a balanced regional development, and so on. Finally, it introduces middle-income trap which is one of the biggest challenges China is facing, followed by recommendation of policies for the Chinese government to tackle the challenges ahead. This book should be of great interest to graduates, undergraduates, researchers and specialists who follow closely the economic development and demographic transition of China, the world''s most populous country.

Cai Fang is one of China’s most distinguished economists. This book elucidates the worldwide significance of China’s economic development over the past 70 years from the perspectives of economic history and growth theory. The Chinese economy has undergone an unprecedented period of growth and development since the reform and opening-up in the late 1970s; a process which the hallmarks of neoclassic economic theory have often proved inadequate to explain. Examining the Chinese economy in the light of Chinese history and the development of the world economy as a whole, the book charts the milestones and critical reforms of China’s economic development, providing insights into unique attributes as well as more generic patterns. The discussion covers multiple hot topics in the field, including the so-called Great Divergence, dual-sector economic development, real-world experience of the reform and opening-up, rural reform, urbanization, economic reform, poverty reduction, the latter day slowdown of China’s economic growth, and China¡ ̄s role in and response to globalization, global supply domination and other headwinds. The book will be a must-read for students, scholars and general readers interested in the Chinese economy, economic development, political economy, and development economics.