Agriculture in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) is dominated by subsistence farming. Households grow food mainly for their own consumption and sell only when they have a surplus. The main crops are cassava, maize, yams, plantains, and rice (FAO 2019). Commercial farming of cash crops such as coffee, palm oil, rubber, and sugar is done on a smaller scale. With constant political instability, infrastructure deficiencies, and lack of investment in DRC, the expansion and productivity of commercial farming have been constrained (World Bank 2020). Livestock and fisheries are also important agrifood subsectors and face constraints similar to the crop subsectors. Despite these challenges, DRC possesses robust agricultural potential due to its vast arable land resources, abundant water resources, and its diverse climatic conditions, which are suitable for a wide variety of crops. There is also potential for further development of the fisheries sector due to the country’s extensive river system and large lakes. In this brief, we look beyond primary agriculture to understand the recent performance of DRC’s broader agrifood system (AFS) and how it is contributing to growth and transformation in the country.

Ghana experienced rapid economic growth with an annual GDP growth rate of 6.6 percent between 2009 and 2019 (GSS 2023). Restrictive COVID-19 policy measures in 2020 caused a slowdown in growth (Amewu et al. 2020), with the rate falling to just 0.5 percent in that year (World Bank 2023a). Economic growth rebounded to 5.4 percent in 2021, but this growth was fueled by excessive government borrowing to finance an ambitious public infrastructure campaign and ushered in a severe financial crisis in Ghana. By 2022, the fiscal deficit had reached almost 10 percent of GDP and the total debt-to-GDP ratio had skyrocketed to 90 percent, resulting in rampant inflation (32 percent year-on year), a doubling of interest rates (from 14 to 28 percent), and a sharp currency depreciation (40 percent) (World Bank 2023b; Naadi 2023). Economic growth slowed to 3.2 percent in 2022 and is projected to decline further to 1.6 percent in 2023 (World Bank 2023a). Although President Akuffo-Addo blamed “malevolent forces” (Financial Times 2023)—including the global commodity market shock caused by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, which by some accounts had only a minimal effect on Ghana’s economy (Arndt et al. 2023; Diao and Thurlow 2023)—the economic situation eventually forced the government to agree to an IMF bailout of US$3 billion in 2023. This will be in force for three years.

Mozambique was one of the fastest-growing countries in sub-Saharan Africa between 2009 and 2014, with annual growth averaging about 7 percent (INE 2020; World Bank 2023a). However, adverse economic circumstances resulted in a significant weakening of economic growth, which averaged only 4.6 percent over the period 2014 to 2019 (INE 2020; World Bank 2023a). Restrictive COVID-19 policy measures introduced in 2020 further stifled the economy, resulting in negative growth in 2020 and low growth in 2021. Like many other countries, Mozambique was adversely affected by global commodity market disruptions resulting from the onset of Russia-Ukraine war in 2022 and the global recession in 2023 (Arndt et al. 2023; Diao and Thurlow 2023). Mozambique’s growth is expected to recover in the coming years, with projections of 5.0 percent growth in 2023 and 8.0 percent in 2024 (World Bank 2023b), suggesting the economy is inching back toward its pre-pandemic growth trajectory.

Uganda experienced annual economic growth of 5.8 percent between 2009 and 2019 (UBOS 2020). While restrictive COVID-19 policy measures in 2020 and 2021 caused a slowdown in the economy, the country has largely been spared the adverse effects of the global commodity market disruptions arising from the Russia-Ukraine war that started in 2022 and from the 2023 global recession (Arndt et al. 2023; Diao and Thurlow 2023). Uganda’s GDP growth is projected to reach 5.5 percent in 2023 and 6.1 percent in 2024 (World Bank 2023), suggesting that the economy is resuming its pre-pandemic growth trajectory. Agriculture remains an important sector, accounting for one-quarter of GDP and two-thirds of Uganda’s jobs. The agriculture sector also performed well in the 2009 to 2019 period, growing at 5.0 percent annually (UBOS 2020). Thanks to a positive terms of trade shock and an established trade surplus in agrifood products, this sector played an important role in weathering the 2022 and 2023 global commodity market shocks (Diao and Thurlow 2023). In this brief, we examine Uganda’s economic growth and transformation trajectory, both historically and going forward. Rather than focusing on the role of primary agriculture, we examine how the country’s broader agrifood system (AFS) is contributing to that transformation process.

Tanzania experienced strong annual economic growth of 6.2 percent between 2009 and 2019 (NBS 2020). Despite the country’s relatively less restrictive domestic COVID-19 measures, the adverse effects of the global commodity market disruptions during the pandemic led to a slowdown in GDP growth to 4.8 percent in 2020 and 4.9 percent in 2021 (NBS 2021). Growth is expected to reach 5.3 percent in 2023 and 6.1 percent in 2024 (World Bank 2023), suggesting that Tanzania is returning to its pre-pandemic growth trajectory. While the economy has been going through a process of structural transformation with rapid growth, agriculture continues to play an important role in both output and employment, accounting for about 30 percent of total GDP and 70 percent of employment in 2019. The agriculture sector performed well over the pre-pandemic decade, with agricultural growth accelerating from 3.8 percent per year in the 2009–2014 period to 5 percent in the 2014–2019 period (NBS 2020). The agriculture sector has also been playing an important role in weathering the global commodity market shocks in 2022 and 2023, thanks to some export crops that benefit from the negative terms of trade shock (Diao and Thurlow 2023). In this brief, we unpack the historical and projected economic growth trajectory further to better understand the role of agriculture as well as the broader agrifood system (AFS) in the performance and transformation of the economy of Tanzania.

Mali experienced modest annual economic growth of 4.4 percent between 2009 and 2019 (INSTAT 2020; World Bank 2023a). With annual population growth of 3.0 percent during that period, the living standards of Malian people improved only modestly. In 2020, the global COVID-19 pandemic caused a significant slowdown in economic growth, while an increase in armed insurgencies by domestic terrorist groups also had an adverse effect on the economy. Mali’s GDP growth is projected to reach 4.0 percent in 2023 and 2024 (World Bank 2023b), suggesting the economy is inching back toward its prepandemic growth trajectory. Agriculture remains an important sector, accounting for 40 percent of GDP and more than 60 percent of employment in Mali. In this brief, we unpack the historical and projected economic growth trajectory further to better understand the role of agriculture as well as the broader agrifood system (AFS) in the performance and transformation of the economy of Mali.