National security relies heavily on the ready availability of energy resources in the types, quantities, and locations the military demands. While U.S. energy needs are currently met, the shrinking gap between global supply and demand draws the world closer to a tipping point at which human behavior is less predictable, competition overwhelms social and geopolitical normalizing forces, and conflict becomes more likely and more pronounced. Given concerns about future resource availability, DoD would be well served by devising and implementing a sustainable, resilient energy strategy that addresses current projections and adapts to evolving conditions.

Energy security is a fundamental requirement for national security, and global energy competition threatens to make Department of Defense (DoD) missions increasingly vulnerable to the whims of energy suppliers. DoD's approach to energy security must accommodate a highly uncertain outlook for energy resource availability. Although U.S. energy security needs are currently met, the shrinking gap between global supply and demand draws the world closer to a point at which competition disrupts social and geopolitical normalizing forces, and conflict becomes likely. While DoD expresses concern over trends that are threatening energy security, Defense planners still operate as if adequate energy supplies will continue to be available without interruption into the extended future. What limited energy-related planning that is currently done addresses only the symptoms of a systemic over-reliance on very few energy resources. This analysis offers key insights into what a shifting energy security environment is, and the paper provides a novel theoretical framework for how the United States can best respond to this ever changing energy security environment. Originally published by the Strategic Studies Institute.

Department of Defense (DoD) installations rely on the commercial electricity grid for 99 percent of their electricity needs, but extensive energy delivery outages in 2012 have reinforced that the U.S. electricity grid is vulnerable to disruptions from natural hazards and actor-induced outages, such as physical or cyber attacks. In the event of a catastrophic disaster--such as a severe hurricane, massive earthquake, or large-scale terrorist attack--DoD installations would also serve as a base for emergency services. To enhance energy security, DoD has identified diversifying energy sources and increasing efficiency in DoD operations as critical goals. But how to enhance energy security across the portfolio of installations is not clear and several questions remain unanswered: Energy security for how long? Under what conditions? At what cost? The underlying analytical questions are, what critical capabilities do U.S. installations provide, and how can DoD maintain these capabilities during an energy services disruption in the most cost-effective manner? Answering these questions requires a systems approach that incorporates technological, economic, and operational uncertainties. Using portfolio analysis methods for assessing capability options, this paper presents a framework to evaluate choices among energy security strategies for DoD installations. This framework evaluates whether existing or proposed installation energy security strategies enhance DoD capabilities and evaluates strategy cost-effectiveness.

This book is written as a practical guide to those interested in the pursuit of energy resilience at a local scale. Energy resilience is defined as the relative ability of an institution to carry out its mission during a shock to the energy system and approach the concept on the level of a single site occupied by a single community or institution. Examples are drawn from four key community types: military bases, healthcare campuses, educational campuses, and municipal governments. The book then describes a framework for developing an energy resilience plan that applies to each. While the focus is clearly on the United States, understanding the energy resilience threat and conducting long-range energy resilience planning will benefit communities all over the globe. Divided into three main parts, Part One describes the specific energy security threats that are facing local institutions and communities and how an energy shock can affect the mission at each of the four community types and the advantages that each will enjoy in their pursuit of energy resilience. Part Two provides concrete guidance for pursuing energy resilience at a particular institution and allows managers to assess where their institution lies on the energy resilience spectrum and plot a course toward where they would like to be. Part Three describes the three main areas of energy resilience performance: energy efficiency, on-site generation, and emergency planning. Case studies are also provided.

The threats to the electricity grid are on the rise at the same time as society is increasing its dependence on electricity for every aspect of our personal, social, and economic lives. We are accelerating that dependence – looking to the electrification of transportation and buildings as a way to stem the threats of climate change. Those threats have now arrived (in the form of more extreme weather, droughts, and wildfire) and they are joined by increasing threats from an aging grid and cyberattacks. The grid we rely on is experiencing increasingly vulnerable external forces. We aren’t helpless. Effective planning around these threats can dramatically reduce the havoc they engender on the electric grid. At every level, from a single building, to a city, to the electric grid and the federal government, steps can be taken to improve our resilience to threats to the electricity system. When those efforts are coordinated, their benefits multiply. This book aims to provide every level of decision-maker with tools and best practices for reducing the risk of and from electricity loss. It is written in non-technical language, with a focus on actionable, easily implemented steps.