Surprise has always been an element of warfare, but the return of great power competition—and the high-level threat that it poses—gives urgency to thinking about surprise now. Because the future is highly uncertain, and great powers have not fought each other for over 70 years, surprise is highly likely in a future great power conflict. This study, therefore, examines potential surprises in a great power conflict, particularly in a conflict’s initial stages when the interaction of adversaries’ technologies, prewar plans, and military doctrines first becomes manifest. It is not an attempt to project the future. Rather, it seeks to do the opposite: explore the range of possible future conflicts to see where surprises might lurk.

Great power competition has returned after a generation of absence, and the U.S. military edge over prospective opponents is eroding. Whereas the United States previously could overwhelm adversaries with sheer force, if necessary, it now needs every advantage it can get. This study analyzes how the United States might inflict surprise on its adversaries to gain a strategic advantage. Surprise is one aspect of a broader discussion in the national security literature on innovative operational concepts, which may serve as force multipliers to enable the United States to get more out of existing capabilities. A follow up to CSIS’s highly successful 2018 study Coping with Surprise in Great Power Conflicts, this report highlights several components of a successful surprise, including exploiting adversary vulnerabilities, using intelligence and technology, employing secrecy and deception, and doing the unexpected. The report also contains over a dozen vignettes illustrating potential future surprises.

Anti-gun zealots in the United States insist that the Second Amendment’s right to keep and bear arms is a “relic.” Try telling that to the people of Ukraine. Ukraine never protected its citizens’ right to keep and bear arms. But as Russia was about to invade, Ukraine did a critical about-face. Ukraine’s government encouraged civilians to carry firearms to defend themselves and their country. It handed out 25,000 fully automatic weapons, while Ukrainians rushed to buy AR-15 rifles that American gun-controllers insist “no one needs.” Did the arming of Ukraine’s civilians make a difference? You bet. Armed citizens have played a crucial role in holding off the massive Russian army. This powerful book highlights how they did it and what they did wrong. Constitutional scholar and host of The Four Boxes Diner YouTube Channel, Mark W. Smith reveals why the lessons learned in Ukraine matter to Americans, and why we must tirelessly resist all efforts to disarm us. Unless we heed Ukraine’s cautionary example, we too may pay a steep price.

Past NATO enlargement helped create a Europe whole, free, and at peace, but future enlargement, should it occur, faces a hostile and militarily revitalized Russia. This report examines the military requirements and resulting budget costs of extending NATO’s Article 5 commitment to countries such as Ukraine, Georgia, or Bosnia-Herzegovina, which are actively seeking NATO membership, and Sweden and Finland, about which there has been analysis and speculation about membership. Costs to the United States range from $11 billion per year to defend Ukraine to half a billion dollars or less to defend Sweden. The project recommends that NATO incorporate force requirements and cost considerations into its future decisionmaking.

In this edition:- • China’s Geostrategic Perspect And Eastern Ladakh – Lt Gen JS Bajwa • Should the Indian Army stay out of politics? – Ramananda Sengupta • Rebuilding the Combat Fleet of the IAF to 42 Squadrons – Air Marshal Anil Chopra • Soft Kill Air Defence Weapon Systems : The Better Alternative? – Col Mandeep Singh • Make in India: An Appraisal 2022 – Danvir Singh • People’s Liberation Army Navy: A Review – Vice Admiral MP Muralidharan • Sixth Generation Fighter Aircraft: Its Prospects – Gp Capt AK Sachdev • Need to prioritise the IAF’s Unmanned Offensive and Defensive Capability – Air Marshal Anil Chopra • Chinese Roulette: Which way will the Wind Blow? – Brig Deepak Sinha • Military – Civil Fusion Strategy of China – Col NP Singh • The Indian Military and the Element of Surprise – Gp Capt PK Mulay • Aerospace and Defence News – Priya Tyagi • Operational Testing and Evaluation of Weapons and Equipment – Lt Gen NB Singh • Atmanirbhar in Aerospace and Defence Manufacturing – Gp Cap AK Sachdev • War Widows: The Hidden Battles – The Journey of Rebuilding Life – Tamanna Ruth Edwards • Part I: The Defence and Decline of Dacca in 1971 – Sumit Walia • Book Review

"A superb book.…Mearsheimer has made a significant contribution to our understanding of the behavior of great powers."—Barry R. Posen, The National Interest The updated edition of this classic treatise on the behavior of great powers takes a penetrating look at the question likely to dominate international relations in the twenty-first century: Can China rise peacefully? In clear, eloquent prose, John Mearsheimer explains why the answer is no: a rising China will seek to dominate Asia, while the United States, determined to remain the world's sole regional hegemon, will go to great lengths to prevent that from happening. The tragedy of great power politics is inescapable.