The subject of this book is applied Bayesian methods for chemistry, manufacturing, and control (CMC) studies in the biopharmaceutical industry. The book has multiple authors from industry and academia, each contributing a case study (chapter). The collection of case studies covers a broad array of CMC topics, including stability analysis, analytical method development, specification setting, process development and optimization, process control, experimental design, dissolution testing, and comparability studies. The analysis of each case study includes a presentation of code and reproducible output. This book is written with an academic level aimed at practicing nonclinical biostatisticians, most of whom have graduate degrees in statistics. • First book of its kind focusing strictly on CMC Bayesian case studies • Case studies with code and output • Representation from several companies across the industry as well as academia • Authors are leading and well-known Bayesian statisticians in the CMC field • Accompanying website with code for reproducibility • Reflective of real-life industry applications/problems

Drug development is an iterative process. The recent publications of regulatory guidelines further entail a lifecycle approach. Blending data from disparate sources, the Bayesian approach provides a flexible framework for drug development. Despite its advantages, the uptake of Bayesian methodologies is lagging behind in the field of pharmaceutical development. Written specifically for pharmaceutical practitioners, Bayesian Analysis with R for Drug Development: Concepts, Algorithms, and Case Studies, describes a wide range of Bayesian applications to problems throughout pre-clinical, clinical, and Chemistry, Manufacturing, and Control (CMC) development. Authored by two seasoned statisticians in the pharmaceutical industry, the book provides detailed Bayesian solutions to a broad array of pharmaceutical problems. Features Provides a single source of information on Bayesian statistics for drug development Covers a wide spectrum of pre-clinical, clinical, and CMC topics Demonstrates proper Bayesian applications using real-life examples Includes easy-to-follow R code with Bayesian Markov Chain Monte Carlo performed in both JAGS and Stan Bayesian software platforms Offers sufficient background for each problem and detailed description of solutions suitable for practitioners with limited Bayesian knowledge Harry Yang, Ph.D., is Senior Director and Head of Statistical Sciences at AstraZeneca. He has 24 years of experience across all aspects of drug research and development and extensive global regulatory experiences. He has published 6 statistical books, 15 book chapters, and over 90 peer-reviewed papers on diverse scientific and statistical subjects, including 15 joint statistical works with Dr. Novick. He is a frequent invited speaker at national and international conferences. He also developed statistical courses and conducted training at the FDA and USP as well as Peking University. Steven Novick, Ph.D., is Director of Statistical Sciences at AstraZeneca. He has extensively contributed statistical methods to the biopharmaceutical literature. Novick is a skilled Bayesian computer programmer and is frequently invited to speak at conferences, having developed and taught courses in several areas, including drug-combination analysis and Bayesian methods in clinical areas. Novick served on IPAC-RS and has chaired several national statistical conferences.

The subject of this book is applied Bayesian methods for chemistry, manufacturing, and control (CMC) studies in the biopharmaceutical industry. The book has multiple authors from industry and academia, each contributing a case study (chapter). The collection of case studies covers a broad array of CMC topics, including stability analysis, analytical method development, specification setting, process development and optimization, process control, experimental design, dissolution testing, and comparability studies. The analysis of each case study includes a presentation of code and reproducible output. This book is written with an academic level aimed at practicing nonclinical biostatisticians, most of whom have graduate degrees in statistics. • First book of its kind focusing strictly on CMC Bayesian case studies • Case studies with code and output • Representation from several companies across the industry as well as academia • Authors are leading and well-known Bayesian statisticians in the CMC field • Accompanying website with code for reproducibility • Reflective of real-life industry applications/problems

Drug development is a strictly regulated area. As such, marketing approval of a new drug depends heavily, if not exclusively, on evidence generated from clinical trials. Drug development has seen tremendous innovation in science and technology that has revolutionized the treatment of some diseases. And yet, the statistical design and practical conduct of the clinical trials used to test new therapeutics for safety and efficacy have changed very little over the decades. Our approach to clinical trials is steeped in convention and tradition. The large, fixed, randomized controlled trial methods that have been the gold standard are well understood and expected by many trial stakeholders. However, this approach is not well suited to all aspects of modern drug development and the current competitive landscape. We now see new therapies that target a small fraction of the patient population, rare diseases with high unmet medical needs, and pediatric populations that must wait for years for new drug approvals from the time that therapies are approved in adults. Large randomized clinical trials are at best inefficient and at worst completely infeasible in many modern clinical settings. Advances in technology and data infrastructure call for innovations in clinical trial design. Despite advances in statistical methods, the availability of information, and computing power, the actual experience with innovative design in clinical trials across industry and academia is limited. This book will be an important showcase of the potential for these innovative designs in modern drug development and will be an important resource to guide those who wish to undertake them for themselves. This book is ideal for professionals in the pharmaceutical industry and regulatory agencies, but it will also be useful to academic researchers, faculty members, and graduate students in statistics, biostatistics, public health, and epidemiology due to its focus on innovation. Key Features: Is written by pharmaceutical industry experts, academic researchers, and regulatory reviewers; this is the first book providing a comprehensive set of case studies related to statistical methodology, implementation, regulatory considerations, and communication of complex innovative trial design Has a broad appeal to a multitude of readers across academia, industry, and regulatory agencies Each contribution is a practical case study that can speak to the benefits of an innovative approach but also balance that with the real-life challenges encountered A complete understanding of what is actually being done in modern clinical trials will broaden the reader’s capabilities and provide examples to first mimic and then customize and expand upon when exploring these ideas on their own

Bayesian Precision Medicine presents modern Bayesian statistical models and methods for identifying treatments tailored to individual patients using their prognostic variables and predictive biomarkers. The process of evaluating and comparing treatments is explained and illustrated by practical examples, followed by a discussion of causal analysis and its relationship to statistical inference. A wide array of modern Bayesian clinical trial designs are presented, including applications to many oncology trials. The later chapters describe Bayesian nonparametric regression analyses of datasets arising from multistage chemotherapy for acute leukemia, allogeneic stem cell transplantation, and targeted agents for treating advanced breast cancer. Features: Describes the connection between causal analysis and statistical inference Reviews modern personalized Bayesian clinical trial designs for dose-finding, treatment screening, basket trials, enrichment, incorporating historical data, and confirmatory treatment comparison, illustrated by real-world applications Presents adaptive methods for clustering similar patient subgroups to improve efficiency Describes Bayesian nonparametric regression analyses of real-world datasets from oncology Provides pointers to software for implementation Bayesian Precision Medicine is primarily aimed at biostatisticians and medical researchers who desire to apply modern Bayesian methods to their own clinical trials and data analyses. It also might be used to teach a special topics course on precision medicine using a Bayesian approach to postgraduate biostatistics students. The main goal of the book is to show how Bayesian thinking can provide a practical scientific basis for tailoring treatments to individual patients.

The series of workshops Case Studies in Bayesian Statistics at Carnegie Mellon University is unique in devoting an entire meeting to extended presentation and discussion of scientific investigations in which statisticians play central roles within integrated, cross- disciplinary teams. The goal has been to elucidate the interplay between Bayesian theory and practice, and thereby identify successful methods and indicate important directions for future research. This volume contains the four invited case studies, with accompanying discussion, and nine contributed papers, from the 4th workshop, which was held September 27-28, 1997. While most of the case studies in this volume come from biomedical research, the reader will also find studies in environmental science and marketing research. Students and teachers of statistics, research statisticians, and investigators from other fields should find a wealth of ideas and methods in this series of case studies.